The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Moderate/Low

Austin

High/ Moderate to High

San Antonio

High/ Moderate

 

Date Issued: 5 January 2007


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Fri and Sat, Jan 5 and 6. TX/OK: Cloudy skies with mild temperatures in Oklahoma today with highs in the mid 50s. Lows tonight will be in the 30s. Temperatures in Texas will range from the 60s in the north to the mid 70s in the south with clear to partly cloudy skies. Lows overnight will be in the 40s. Winds in the Oklahoma/Texas regions will be initially from the south today but changing to west and then northwest as a cold front moves into the area this evening. Saturday will bring cooler temperature, partly cloudy skies, and northerly winds to the region. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid 40s in Oklahoma and 50s in Texas.



Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the eastern side of the Edwards Plateau move to the northeast. Trajectories from the western side of the Plateau move to the east. The trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel. Conditions at the source areas on the Plateau are favorable for pollen release. Saturday's trajectories all move to the south and are associated with colder sinking air and show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel. Conditions at the source areas will be cool on Saturday morning limiting pollen release to the afternoon hours.


OUTLOOK: *** High threat today/Moderate tomorrow *** Favorable conditions for pollen release today and concentrations are likely to be high. Conditions are not as favorable tomorrow with low morning temperatures that will limit pollen release to the afternoon hours. However, significant amounts of pollen may still be in the air across the Plateau from today. As a result pollen levels may be still be significantly elevated.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SAN ANGELO




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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