The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 11 January 2007

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thurs and Fri, Jan 11 and 12. TX/OK: Cloudy skies across Oklahoma and parts of Texas today with chances of rain increasing tonight and tomorrow. Highs today will be in the 60s across the region with strong and gusty southerly winds ahead of the frontal system that will enter the region overnight. Overnight lows will range from the upper 30s in parts of Oklahoma to the low 60s in southern Texas. Friday will bring dramatic changes in Oklahoma with winds shifting to northerly and falling temperatures during the day. There will be increasing chances of rain, and rain will change to freezing rain and ice later on Friday as the temperatures drop below freezing. In Texas, temperatures on Friday will remain warm, in the 60s and 70s, with a chance rain and thunderstorms and southerly winds.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the northeast over northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and across Missouri. The trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel ahead of the frontal system. Conditions at the source area are mostly favorable for pollen release. Temperatures are optimal but humidity is somewhat high. Trajectories for Friday begin moving south then circle around to the north. Although temperatures will still be favorable on Friday, the likelihood of rain will reduce chances for pollen release.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High threat today/Low threat tomorrow *** Conditions are generally good for pollen release today but poor on Friday as the cold front moves through the state bringing rain and freezing rain.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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