The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 2 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 2 TX/OK: The weather today and tomorrow will be relatively cool but moderating slightly as the colder air across the regions begins to warm. High pressure over the region will bring sunny to partly sunny skies across Oklahoma and Texas with cool conditions today and cold below freezing air temperatures tonight. Conditions will continue to warm tomorrow. Oklahoma will be cool today with temperatures in central Oklahoma and northward in the mid 30s to low 40s and the mid 40s in more southern localities. Skies will be sunny with mostly cloudy conditions overnight. Overnight temperatures will dip into the lower 20s and upper teens. Winds will be light and variable to 10 mph shifting from the north to the south over night. Tomorrow skies will become partly cloudy but temperatures will rise by about 5 degrees into the upper 40s in central Oklahoma rising to the lower 50s towards Texas. Winds will pick-up to 15 - 25 mph from the south. Stronger gusts are expected during the afternoon. In Texas, temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 40s across the Edwards Plateau and in the mid 50s along the eastern and southern edge between Waco and San Antonio. Winds will be from 5 to 10 mph from the north to northeast switching to the south to southeast into the evening hours on the Edwards Plateau. Overnight the skies will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid to lower 20s across the region. Thursday will be partly cloudy over the Plateau and mostly sunny along the edge communities from Austin to San Antonio. Temperatures will warm by 5 to 10 degrees and winds continuing to turn from the northeast to the south and southeast across the region. Wind strengths will increase during the afternoon. Low temperatures overnight will be warmer with many areas being above freezing.

Trajectory weather: Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by cold conditions today with the trajectories moving on northerly winds that then shift back to the north pushing the trajectories over western Oklahoma. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau south to southwest, then circles around overnight and heads northward into central and western Oklahoma, onto Kansas, Missouri and Iowa towards the upper mid-west. Wind characteristics show a relatively stable or sinking atmosphere suggesting poor characteristics for entrainment of any pollen that is released. Cold temperatures make for poor pollen release conditions within the Arbuckle Mountains population today but conditions should improve slightly tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today; Poor conditions for pollen release in Oklahoma but better conditions in Texas *** Temperatures will be very low this morning, with clear, sunny skies today. Overall poor pollen release conditions are expected in southern Oklahoma today with very low temperatures; however, conditions are somewhat better further south over the Edwards Plateau with clear, sunny skies and temperatures in the mid- to upper-40s and 50s in some areas. The trajectories from Texas show movement initially to the southwest then quickly towards the north over Oklahoma, Kansas and on to the upper mid-west. The trajectory characteristics show the atmosphere to be stable to rising conditions that is conducive to pollen entrainment and long-distance travel over long time periods. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate high concentrations of pollen thus the trees are in their main period of pollination; so the potential exists for some pollen transport to Oklahoma late tonight. However morning temperatures are low even in Texas so pollen release will be limited to the afternoon hours.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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