The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Moderate to High

San Antonio

Moderate to High

 

Date Issued: 2 January 2008


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 2 TX/OK: The weather today and tomorrow will be relatively cool but moderating slightly as the colder air across the regions begins to warm. High pressure over the region will bring sunny to partly sunny skies across Oklahoma and Texas with cool conditions today and cold below freezing air temperatures tonight. Conditions will continue to warm tomorrow. Oklahoma will be cool today with temperatures in central Oklahoma and northward in the mid 30s to low 40s and the mid 40s in more southern localities. Skies will be sunny with mostly cloudy conditions overnight. Overnight temperatures will dip into the lower 20s and upper teens. Winds will be light and variable to 10 mph shifting from the north to the south over night. Tomorrow skies will become partly cloudy but temperatures will rise by about 5 degrees into the upper 40s in central Oklahoma rising to the lower 50s towards Texas. Winds will pick-up to 15 - 25 mph from the south. Stronger gusts are expected during the afternoon. In Texas, temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 40s across the Edwards Plateau and in the mid 50s along the eastern and southern edge between Waco and San Antonio. Winds will be from 5 to 10 mph from the north to northeast switching to the south to southeast into the evening hours on the Edwards Plateau. Overnight the skies will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid to lower 20s across the region. Thursday will be partly cloudy over the Plateau and mostly sunny along the edge communities from Austin to San Antonio. Temperatures will warm by 5 to 10 degrees and winds continuing to turn from the northeast to the south and southeast across the region. Wind strengths will increase during the afternoon. Low temperatures overnight will be warmer with many areas being above freezing.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau south to southwest, then circles around overnight and heads northward into central and western Oklahoma, onto Kansas, Missouri and Iowa towards the upper mid-west. Populations in the Edwards Plateau will be influenced by cold overnight conditions this morning with the trajectories moving on northeastern winds that then turn to the north pushing the trajectories over western Oklahoma towards the upper mid-west. Partly cloudy skies over central Texas tonight will bring cold temperatures with light winds from the south to southeast over the Plateau and northeast along the eastern and southern edge communities. Wind characteristics show rising atmospheric conditions suggesting moderate to good characteristics for entrainment and long-distance travel. Cool conditions today make for moderate release conditions but some populations across the Plateau may show high levels of pollen release. Conditions should improve somewhat tomorrow with slightly warmer daytime and nighttime conditions.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High threat today; Moderate conditions for pollen release *** Temperatures will be very low this morning, limiting any pollen release to the afternoon hours. Conditions for release are only moderate over the Edwards Plateau with clear, sunny skies but cool temperatures in the mid-40s to low 50s. Cold temperatures overnight will be well below freezing again on the Plateau and along the eastern and southern edge communities. Pollen sampling stations in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate high concentrations of pollen thus the trees are in their main period of pollination. So even with only moderate conditions on the Edwards Plateau, the potential exists for some elevated pollen concentrations in some areas. Warmer temperatures tomorrow will result in a slightly increased risk.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SAN ANGELO



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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