The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Low |
Austin |
Moderate to High |
San Antonio |
Moderate to High |
Date Issued: 2 January 2008
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 2 TX/OK:
The weather today and tomorrow will be relatively cool but moderating slightly as the colder air across the regions
begins to warm. High pressure over the region will bring sunny to partly sunny skies across Oklahoma and Texas
with cool conditions today and cold below freezing air temperatures tonight. Conditions will continue to warm
tomorrow. Oklahoma will be cool today with temperatures in central Oklahoma and northward in the mid 30s to low
40s and the mid 40s in more southern localities. Skies will be sunny with mostly cloudy conditions overnight.
Overnight temperatures will dip into the lower 20s and upper teens. Winds will be light and variable to 10 mph
shifting from the north to the south over night. Tomorrow skies will become partly cloudy but temperatures will
rise by about 5 degrees into the upper 40s in central Oklahoma rising to the lower 50s towards Texas. Winds will
pick-up to 15 - 25 mph from the south. Stronger gusts are expected during the afternoon. In Texas, temperatures
today will be in the mid to upper 40s across the Edwards Plateau and in the mid 50s along the eastern and southern
edge between Waco and San Antonio. Winds will be from 5 to 10 mph from the north to northeast switching to the
south to southeast into the evening hours on the Edwards Plateau. Overnight the skies will be partly cloudy with
temperatures in the mid to lower 20s across the region. Thursday will be partly cloudy over the Plateau and mostly
sunny along the edge communities from Austin to San Antonio. Temperatures will warm by 5 to 10 degrees and winds
continuing to turn from the northeast to the south and southeast across the region. Wind strengths will increase
during the afternoon. Low temperatures overnight will be warmer with many areas being above freezing.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau south to southwest, then circles
around overnight and heads northward into central and western Oklahoma, onto Kansas, Missouri and Iowa towards
the upper mid-west. Populations in the Edwards Plateau will be influenced by cold overnight conditions this morning
with the trajectories moving on northeastern winds that then turn to the north pushing the trajectories over western
Oklahoma towards the upper mid-west. Partly cloudy skies over central Texas tonight will bring cold temperatures
with light winds from the south to southeast over the Plateau and northeast along the eastern and southern edge
communities. Wind characteristics show rising atmospheric conditions suggesting moderate to good characteristics
for entrainment and long-distance travel. Cool conditions today make for moderate release conditions but some
populations across the Plateau may show high levels of pollen release. Conditions should improve somewhat tomorrow
with slightly warmer daytime and nighttime conditions.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High threat today;
Moderate conditions for pollen release *** Temperatures will be very low this morning, limiting any
pollen release to the afternoon hours. Conditions for release are only moderate over the Edwards Plateau with clear,
sunny skies but cool temperatures in the mid-40s to low 50s. Cold temperatures overnight will be well below freezing
again on the Plateau and along the eastern and southern edge communities. Pollen sampling stations in the communities
of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate high concentrations of pollen thus the trees are in their main period
of pollination. So even with only moderate conditions on the Edwards Plateau, the potential exists for some elevated
pollen concentrations in some areas. Warmer temperatures tomorrow will result in a slightly increased risk.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SAN ANGELO
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The University
of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and
Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039).
This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the
region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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