The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 4 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, January 4 TX/OK: The weather today and tomorrow will be relatively mild to unseasonably warm, but with relatively high levels of humidity and cloudy skies. Mostly cloudy skies will occur today and tonight across Oklahoma. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be mild today with highs from the low to mid 50s. Winds across the region will be strong and from the south during the day and overnight. Overnight skies will be mostly cloudy with low temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. Tomorrow during the day and into tomorrow night skies will be partly cloudy but temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 60s, approaching 70 in southern areas of the state. Saturday night temperatures will return to the upper 40s and lower 50s while maintaining partly cloudy skies. Winds will remain moderate to strong, 15 to 20 mph from the south, on Saturday. In Texas, temperatures today will be in the lower 60s across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Winds across central Texas will be from the south region wide and moderate to strong, 10/20 to 25/30 mph on the Edwards Plateau decreasing to 10/15 along the Plateau edge. Overnight the skies will be partly to cloudy to partly cloudy with fog developing overnight. Low temperatures overnight will be in the upper 40s to low 50s over the region. Winds will remain moderate to strong and from the south. Saturday will be partly cloudy, clearing to partly sunny over the southwestern portions of the Plateau and along the edge communities from Austin to San Antonio. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs in the mid 70s across the Edwards Plateau and along the eastern and southern edge communities. Winds will remain moderate to strong from the south. Low temperatures overnight on Saturday will be warmer with many areas in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move northward over central Oklahoma and turn northeast into eastern Kansas. Conditions at the source include mostly cloudy skies but warming temperatures and high humidity which create fair to moderate conditions for pollen release today. Wind characteristics show relatively stable atmospheric conditions suggesting moderate characteristics for entrainment and with strong winds good conditions for pollen transport when it is released. Weather conditions make for a forecast of moderate pollen release and entrainment from the Arbuckle Mountains population today with more improvement tomorrow. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau due north across central to northeastern Oklahoma, onto Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa towards the upper mid-west. In addition to pollen from the population in the Arbuckles, additional pollen from Texas may be carried into Oklahoma this afternoon and evening.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat today; Moderate pollen release conditions in Oklahoma, Moderate to good pollen release conditions in Texas *** Temperatures will be warming today, but with mostly cloudy skies and high humidity over the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei populations.. Moderate pollen release conditions are expected in southern Oklahoma. Conditions are somewhat better further south over the Edwards Plateau. However, partly cloudy skies and overall high humidity levels will tend to lessen pollen release somewhat. Temperatures will be warming to the low 60s. Mild temperatures overnight will be much warmer than recently on the Plateau and along the eastern and southern edge communities. Throughout the region, moderate to strong winds will be steady from the south for the next couple of days. In Texas, conditions are moderate to good for pollen release today with conditions improving tomorrow. The trajectories from Texas show movement directly north across Oklahoma potentially impacting Oklahoma City to Tulsa. The trajectories then move onto Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa then on to the upper mid-west. The trajectory characteristics show the atmosphere to be stable and are conducive to pollen entrainment and long-distance travel over long time periods. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate high concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees are in their main period of pollination. Moderate to good conditions will occur today on the Edwards Plateau, with improving conditions tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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