The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Saturday and Sunday

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Moderate to High

Tulsa

Moderate to High

St. Louis MO

Moderate

 

Date Issued: 5 January 2008


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Saturday and Sunday, January 5th and 6th TX/OK: The weather today and tomorrow will be relatively mild to unseasonably warm and influenced by the position of the jet stream, The region will experience high temperatures but with relatively high levels of humidity and cloudy skies. Partly cloudy skies will occur today and tonight across Oklahoma. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be mild with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds across the region will be moderate to strong and from the south during the day and overnight. Overnight skies will be partly cloudy with low temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. In Texas, temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 70s across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Winds across central Texas will be from the south and moderate to strong, 15/20 with gusts to 40 on the western Edwards Plateau. Overnight the skies will be partly cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s on the Edwards Plateau to upper 50s in the surrounding edge communities. Winds will remain moderate to strong and from the south.

Sunday during the day, skies will be partly cloudy breaking out to sunny conditions during the afternoon. Sunday night, skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with the potential for precipitation increasing across the region, especially to the south and southeast. Temperatures on Sunday in Oklahoma will rise into the lower 70s. Low temperatures Sunday evening will be in the mid to lower 50s with warmer conditions towards the south. Winds will remain moderate to strong from the south across the region. In Texas, Sunday temperatures will rise to the upper 70s with partly cloudy skies and high humidity in the morning drying and clearing to partly sunny and clear skies in the afternoon, especially over the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain moderate to strong, 15 to 25 mph from the south. Low temperatures will be in the lower 50's across the Plateau and in the upper 50s along the edge communities including Austin and San Antonio.

Trajectory weather: Atmospheric conditions are very similar both today and tomorrow thus the trajectory weather is essentially the same for both days. Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by warmer conditions overnight, but with relatively high humidity across the region. The trajectories from the Arbuckles move north to northeast over Oklahoma. Partly cloudy to clear skies with warming conditions over the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei population create moderately good conditions for pollen release today. Wind characteristics show relatively stable atmospheric conditions suggesting moderate to good characteristics for entrainment and with strong winds good conditions for pollen transport when it is released. Weather conditions make for a forecast of good pollen release and entrainment from the Arbuckle Mountains population today and tomorrow. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau due north across central to northeastern Oklahoma, onto Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa towards the upper mid-west.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High threat today, Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow *** Warm temperatures and drying conditions during the afternoons will be optimal for pollen release on the Edwards Plateau and in Oklahoma today and tomorrow. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate high concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees are in their main period of pollination. With good atmospheric conditions and warm temperatures significant pollen dispersion downwind will put allergy sufferers in central Oklahoma (Oklahoma City) to northeastern Oklahoma (Tulsa), into Kansas and Missouri (St. Louis) at risk today and tomorrow.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.


SATURDAY


SUNDAY



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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