The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Saturday and Sunday
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
High |
Austin |
High |
San Antonio |
High |
Date Issued: 5 January 2008
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Saturday and Sunday, January 5th and
6th TX/OK: The weather today and tomorrow will be relatively mild to unseasonably warm and influenced by
the position of the jet stream, The region will experience high temperatures but with relatively high levels of
humidity and cloudy skies. Partly cloudy skies will occur today and tonight across Oklahoma. Temperatures in
Oklahoma will be mild with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds across the region will be moderate to strong and
from the south during the day and overnight. Overnight skies will be partly cloudy with low temperatures in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. In Texas, temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 70s across the Edwards Plateau
and in the surrounding communities. Winds across central Texas will be from the south and moderate to strong,
15/20 with gusts to 40 on the western Edwards Plateau. Overnight the skies will be partly cloudy. Low temperatures
will be in the upper 40s to low 50s on the Edwards Plateau to upper 50s in the surrounding edge communities. Winds
will remain moderate to strong and from the south.
Sunday during the day, skies will be partly cloudy breaking out to sunny conditions during the afternoon. Sunday
night, skies will be partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with the potential for precipitation increasing across the
region, especially to the south and southeast. Temperatures on Sunday in Oklahoma will rise into the lower 70s.
Low temperatures Sunday evening will be in the mid to lower 50s with warmer conditions towards the south. Winds
will remain moderate to strong from the south across the region. In Texas, Sunday temperatures will rise to the
upper 70s with partly cloudy skies and high humidity in the morning drying and clearing to partly sunny and clear
skies in the afternoon, especially over the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain moderate to strong, 15 to 25 mph
from the south. Low temperatures will be in the lower 50's across the Plateau and in the upper 50s along the edge
communities including Austin and San Antonio.
Trajectory weather: Atmospheric conditions are very similar both today and tomorrow thus the trajectory
weather is essentially the same for both days. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau due north
across central to northeastern Oklahoma, onto Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa towards the upper mid-west. Populations
in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by warmer conditions overnight, but with relatively high humidity
across the region. The trajectories move northward over Oklahoma along similar pathways as the Texas sites. Mostly
cloudy skies but warming conditions over the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei population create moderate to good conditions
for pollen release today. Wind characteristics show relatively stable atmospheric conditions suggesting moderate
to good characteristics for entrainment and with strong winds good conditions for pollen transport when it is released.
Weather conditions make for a forecast of moderate to good pollen release and entrainment from the Arbuckle Mountains
population today and tomorrow
OUTLOOK: *** High threat today, Moderate
to Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow *** Warm temperatures
and drying conditions during the afternoons will be optimal for pollen release on the Edwards Plateau and in Oklahoma
today and tomorrow. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate high concentrations
of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees are in their main period of pollination. With good atmospheric conditions
and warm temperatures significant pollen dispersion downwind will put allergy sufferers in northern Texas (Dallas),
central Oklahoma (Oklahoma City) to northeastern Oklahoma (Tulsa), into Kansas and Missouri (St. Louis) at risk
today and tomorrow. In addition, local populations in the eastern edge communities (San Antonio, Austin, Waco)
will also see significant levels of pollen both today and on Sunday.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.
AUSTIN (SATURDAY)
JUNCTION (SATURDAY)
SAN ANGELO (SATURDAY)
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE (SATURDAY)
AUSTIN (SUNDAY)
JUNCTION (SUNDAY)
SAN ANGELO (SUNDAY)
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE (SUNDAY)
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The University
of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and
Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039).
This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the
region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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