The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 7 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, January 7 TX/OK: The weather today and tomorrow will be influenced by the movement of systems out of the western Rocky Mountains. Skies across Oklahoma this morning will begin to become cloudier later in the day and into the nighttime hours. The cloudy skies results in a 20 to 40% chance of showers this morning from Oklahoma City south towards the Texas border. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be similar to yesterdays with highs in central Oklahoma in the lower 70s climbing to the mid-70s in southern Oklahoma. Winds across the region will be from the south 15 to 20 mph during the day. Overnight winds will start to turn heading out of the southwest. Overnight, temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s with an increasing chance of precipitation from north to south. Tomorrow during the day and into tomorrow night skies will begin to clear with a 15 to 20 degree drop in daytime temperatures. Winds will remain moderate switching to the southwest to west towards tomorrow evening. Overnight temperatures will also drop by about 10 degrees, reaching the upper 20s to mid 30s from north to south. In Texas, temperatures today will remain warm, in the lower to mid 70s across the Edwards Plateau and in the upper 70s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds across central Texas will be from the southwest, light to moderate, 5/15 mph on the Edwards Plateau increasing to 10/20 from the southeast along the Plateau edge. Overnight the skies will be partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain along the eastern edge communities. Temperatures will remain warm with lows expected in the low 60s to mid 50s. Tuesday will be clearing over the Plateau and along the edge communities from Austin to San Antonio. Temperatures will drop by 5 to 10 degrees across the Edwards Plateau and along the eastern and southern edge communities. Winds will remain steady switching from the south - southeast to the west - northwest. Low temperatures overnight on Tuesday will be colder with many areas in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Trajectory weather: Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by increasing clouds and heightened chances of precipitation this afternoon. However, temperatures will remain warm, but with high humidity. The trajectories from the Arbuckle's move north, northeastward over Oklahoma into northern Missouri and into Illinois. Partly to mostly cloudy skies, high humidity and increasing chances of precipitation over the southern Oklahoma Juniperus ashei population create moderate conditions for pollen release. Wind characteristics show stable atmospheric conditions with poor to moderate characteristics for entrainment of any pollen that is released. Weather conditions make for a forecast of poor to moderate pollen release and entrainment from the Arbuckle Mountains population today with some improvement tomorrow. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau north east across the southeastern corner of Oklahoma, into Arkansas before turning towards the south into Louisiana and eastern Texas.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate threat today; Moderate pollen release conditions in Oklahoma *** Temperatures will be warm today, but skies will be partly cloudy this morning with increasing clouds this afternoon and an increasing chance of precipitation this afternoon over the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei populations.. Overall poor to moderate pollen release conditions are expected in southern Oklahoma today. Conditions are somewhat better further south over the Edwards Plateau, however the wind trajectories carry any entrained pollen further south and east into Arkansas before turning southward. Throughout the region, light to moderate winds will be shifting from the south - southeast to the west - northwest then on to the northeast.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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