The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 8 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 8 TX/OK: The weather today and tomorrow will be once again influenced by the movement of systems out of the western Rocky Mountains across the central Great Plains. Skies across Oklahoma this morning will be partly cloudy clearing later in the day and into the nighttime hours. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the low 50s in central Oklahoma to the mid-50s in southern Oklahoma. Winds across the region will be from the northwest 10 to 20 mph during the day. Overnight winds will be decreasing to light and variable conditions from the northwest then start to turn towards the south and southeast by tomorrow. Overnight, temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s from north to south. Tomorrow during the day and into tomorrow night skies will begin to clear with a 5 to 10 degree rise in daytime temperatures. Winds will remain moderate switching to the southern quadrants tomorrow evening. Overnight temperatures on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 30s from north to south. In Texas, cloudy conditions will occur this morning while a thunderstorm front moves through the region to the east. Both Austin and San Antonio have 20% to 50% chance of precipitation but with skies clearing into the afternoon. Temperatures today will remain warm, in the lower to mid 60s across the Edwards Plateau and in the mid to lower 70s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds across central Texas will be from the northwest from 5 to 15 mph on the Edwards Plateau. In the communities around the edge of the plateau winds will be from the west shifting towards the north and north and increasing to 15 to 20 mph. Overnight the skies will be mostly clear with temperatures in the lower 30s across the Plateau and in the lower 40s along the Edwards Plateau edge communities. Winds will be moderate from the north to northeast. Wednesday, skies will be clear and sunny over the Plateau and along the edge communities from Austin to San Antonio. Temperatures will vary by 5 to 10 degrees from today across the Edwards Plateau and along the eastern and southern edge communities. Winds will remain steady switching towards the southeast. Low temperatures overnight on Wednesday will warm by up to 5 to 7 degrees.

Trajectory weather: Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by the predominantly north, northwest winds, moving the wind trajectories southward towards Austin over the next 24 to 36 hours. Temperatures at the source will remain seasonal in the mid 50s, with clearing skies and overall drying conditions. The combination of warming temperatures, clearing skies over the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei population create moderate to favorable conditions for pollen release. Wind characteristics show stable, but dense atmospheric conditions suggesting only moderate characteristics for entrainment of any pollen that is released. Weather conditions make for a forecast of moderate pollen release and entrainment from the Arbuckle Mountains population today with some improvement tomorrow. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau south towards the southern border with Mexico before turning towards the west and back towards central Texas into Oklahoma. Populations on the eastern portion of the Edwards Plateau move further south and are less influenced in the wind shift later tonight and tomorrow versus those populations on the western portions of the Edwards Plateau.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat today; Moderate to Favorable pollen release conditions in Oklahoma *** Temperatures will warm today, with skies clearing towards the afternoon over the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei populations. Overall moderate pollen release conditions are expected in southern Oklahoma today, but north to northeast winds will carry any entrained pollen southward into Texas. Conditions are better further south over the Edwards Plateau, with the wind trajectories moving entrained pollen south and then west into Mexico and back to western then northern Texas. Throughout the region, light to moderate winds will be shifting from the north - northwest to the southeast then southwest. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate continued high concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees are in their main period of pollination, conditions are moderate to good conditions for release in the Oklahoma populations.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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