The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 8 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 8 TX/OK: The weather today and tomorrow will be once again influenced by the movement of systems out of the western Rocky Mountains across the central Great Plains. Skies across Oklahoma this morning will be partly cloudy clearing later in the day and into the nighttime hours. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the low 50s in central Oklahoma to the mid-50s in southern Oklahoma. Winds across the region will be from the northwest 10 to 20 mph during the day. Overnight winds will be decreasing to light and variable conditions from the northwest then start to turn towards the south and southeast by tomorrow. Overnight, temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s from north to south. Tomorrow during the day and into tomorrow night skies will begin to clear with a 5 to 10 degree rise in daytime temperatures. Winds will remain moderate switching to the southern quadrants tomorrow evening. Overnight temperatures on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 30s from north to south. In Texas, cloudy conditions will occur this morning while a thunderstorm front moves through the region to the east. Both Austin and San Antonio have 20% to 50% chance of precipitation but with skies clearing into the afternoon. Temperatures today will remain warm, in the lower to mid 60s across the Edwards Plateau and in the mid to lower 70s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds across central Texas will be from the northwest from 5 to 15 mph on the Edwards Plateau. In the communities around the edge of the plateau winds will be from the west shifting towards the north and north and increasing to 15 to 20 mph. Overnight the skies will be mostly clear with temperatures in the lower 30s across the Plateau and in the lower 40s along the Edwards Plateau edge communities. Winds will be moderate from the north to northeast. Wednesday, skies will be clear and sunny over the Plateau and along the edge communities from Austin to San Antonio. Temperatures will vary by 5 to 10 degrees from today across the Edward Plateau and along the eastern and southern edge communities. Winds will remain steady switching towards the southeast. Low temperatures overnight on Wednesday will warm by up to 5 to 7 degrees.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau south towards the southern border with Mexico before turning towards the west and back towards central Texas into Oklahoma. Populations on the eastern portion of the Edwards Plateau move further south and are less influenced in the wind shift later tonight and tomorrow versus those populations on the western portions of the Edwards Plateau. Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains of southern Oklahoma will be influenced by the predominantly northerly breezes, moving the wind trajectories southward towards Austin over the next 24 to 36 hours. Temperatures will remain seasonal in the mid to upper 60s over the Plateau and in the mid 70s over the edge communities. Clearing skies after the thunderstorms move through this morning result in moderate pollen release conditions early. However, the combination of warming temperatures, clearing skies later today over the Texas Juniperus ashei population create moderate to favorable conditions for pollen release. Wind characteristics show stable, but dense atmospheric conditions indicating only moderate characteristics for entrainment of any released pollen. Weather conditions make for a forecast of moderate to favorable pollen release and entrainment from the Edwards Plateau populations today with some improvement tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High threat today; Moderate to Favorable pollen release conditions on the Edwards Plateau, Poor to Moderate entrainment conditions on the Edwards Plateau*** Temperatures will be warm today, but skies will be partly cloudy this morning with clearing this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow. Moderate to high threat today exists from the Edwards Plateau Juniperus ashei populations. Overall, moderate to favorable pollen release conditions are expected, but only moderate entrainment conditions exist across the Edwards Plateau today. Light to moderate winds will carry any entrained pollen southward into southernmost Texas and Mexico before turning westward and then back to the northeast. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio continue to indicate high concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees are in their main period of pollination. With the warm temperatures and the stage of release that the Edwards Plateau trees are in (middle of the pollination period) significant amounts of pollen may be available for entrainment, even though the conditions for long-distance travel are not particularly good. Therefore high threats exist for the urban communities south of the Edwards Plateau and include San Antonio.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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