The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 9 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 9 TX/OK: The weather today and tomorrow will be mild across the southern Great Plains. Skies across Oklahoma this morning will be mostly sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy into the nighttime hours. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the upper 50s in central Oklahoma to the low 60s in southern Oklahoma. Winds across the region will be from the south to southeast 10 to 20 mph during the day with gusts in central Oklahoma up to 30 mph. Overnight winds will decrease to 10 to 15 from the south. Overnight, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s. Tomorrow during the day and into tomorrow night skies will continue to be partly cloudy with a 5 to 10 degree drop in daytime temperatures. Winds will remain moderate switching to the northwest becoming light and variable overnight. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s from north to south. In Texas, sunny conditions will occur this today and into the early evening, with cloudy conditions building after midnight. Fog will build in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures today will remain moderately warm, in the mid 60s across the Edwards Plateau and in the upper 60s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds across central Texas will start from the south, switching to the southwest overnight. Winds will be light to moderate from 5 to 10 mph on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding edge communities. Overnight the skies will become increasingly cloudy with fog developing in the edge communities. Winds will be light from the south to southwest on the Edwards Plateau. Thursday, skies will continue to be mostly clear and sunny over the Plateau and along the edge communities from Austin to San Antonio. Temperatures will remain similar to today, with a 5 degree warm-up along the edge communities. Winds will remain steady switching to the northwest. Low temperatures overnight on Thursday will cool by 10 degrees with most locations on the Edwards Plateau near freezing and the edge communities in the low 40s.

Trajectory weather: Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by the predominantly southerly breezes today, moving the wind trajectories northward towards Kansas and the central Great Plains. Temperatures will remain seasonal in the mid to upper 50s to low 60s, with clear skies but increasing cloudiness overnight and a 20% chance of rain in central Oklahoma tomorrow. The combination of warm temperatures and clear skies today over the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei population create moderate to favorable conditions for pollen release. However, morning temperatures were low delaying pollen release to the afternoon hours. Wind characteristics show stable atmospheric conditions suggesting moderate to favorable characteristics for entrainment of released pollen. Weather conditions make for a forecast of moderate pollen release and entrainment from the Arbuckle Mountains population today with some improvement tomorrow. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau north across the southeastern quadrant of Oklahoma, before turning back southward over eastern Texas as the winds switch from the South to the Northwest late tonight into tomorrow morning. The atmosphere over the Edwards Plateau appears to be relatively stable today until the shift in winds brings more buoyant conditions late tonight and into tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High threat today; Moderate to Favorable pollen release conditions in Oklahoma, Moderate to Favorable pollen release conditions in Texas *** Temperatures will warm today, with clear skies over the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei populations. Overall moderate to favorable pollen release conditions are expected in southern Oklahoma today with south winds will carry entrained pollen into central Oklahoma and towards the central Great Plains. Low morning temperatures will limit pollen release to the afternoon hours. Conditions are better further south over the Edwards Plateau, with the wind trajectories moving entrained pollen north into southeastern Oklahoma and Arkansas before turning south again back into eastern Texas. Throughout the region, light to moderate winds will be shifting from south to the northwest tomorrow and then back to the south to southwest. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate continued high concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees are in their main period of pollination, conditions are moderate to favorable conditions for release in the Oklahoma populations.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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