The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Moderate to High |
Austin |
High |
San Antonio |
High |
Date Issued: 9 January 2008
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 9 TX/OK:
The weather today and tomorrow will be mild across the southern Great Plains. Skies across Oklahoma this morning
will be mostly sunny becoming partly to mostly cloudy into the nighttime hours. Temperatures in Oklahoma will
be in the upper 50s in central Oklahoma to the low 60s in southern Oklahoma. Winds across the region will be from
the south to southeast 10 to 20 mph during the day with gusts in central Oklahoma up to 30 mph. Overnight winds
will decrease to 10 to 15 from the south. Overnight, temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s. Tomorrow during
the day and into tomorrow night skies will continue to be partly cloudy with a 5 to 10 degree drop in daytime temperatures.
Winds will remain moderate switching to the northwest becoming light and variable overnight. Overnight temperatures
will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s from north to south. In Texas, sunny conditions will occur this today and
into the early evening, with cloudy conditions building after midnight. Fog will build in the communities surrounding
the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures today will remain moderately warm, in the mid 60s across the Edwards Plateau
and in the upper 60s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds across central Texas will start
from the south, switching to the southwest overnight. Winds will be light to moderate from 5 to 10 mph on the
Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding edge communities. Overnight the skies will become increasingly cloudy with
fog developing in the edge communities. Winds will be light from the south to southwest on the Edwards Plateau.
Thursday, skies will continue to be mostly clear and sunny over the Plateau and along the edge communities from
Austin to San Antonio. Temperatures will remain similar to today, with a 5 degree warm-up along the edge communities.
Winds will remain steady switching to the northwest. Low temperatures overnight on Thursday will cool by 10 degrees
with most locations on the Edwards Plateau near freezing and the edge communities in the low 40s.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau north across the southeastern
quadrant of Oklahoma, before turning back southward over eastern Texas as the winds switch from the South to the
Northwest late tonight into tomorrow morning. The shift in winds will occur earlier to the north versus southern
areas thus entrained pollen will turn towards eastern Texas differentially throughout tonight into tomorrow. The
atmosphere over the Edwards Plateau appears to be relatively stable today until the shift in winds brings more
buoyant conditions late tonight and into tomorrow. Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by
the predominantly southerly breezes today, moving the wind trajectories northward towards Kansas and the central
Great Plains. Temperatures will remain seasonal in the mid to upper 50s to low 60s, with clear skies but increasing
cloudiness overnight and a 20% chance of rain in central Oklahoma tomorrow. The combination of warm temperatures
and clear skies today over the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei population create moderate to favorable conditions for
pollen release. Wind characteristics show stable atmospheric conditions suggesting moderate to favorable characteristics
for entrainment of released pollen. Weather conditions make for a forecast of moderate pollen release and entrainment
from the Arbuckle Mountains population today with some improvement tomorrow.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High threat today; Moderate to Favorable pollen release conditions on the Edwards Plateau, Moderate to Favorable entrainment conditions on the Edwards Plateau***
Conditions are moderate to favorable for pollen release and entrainment over the Edwards Plateau, with the wind
trajectories moving entrained pollen north into southeastern Oklahoma and Arkansas before turning south again back
into eastern Texas. Throughout the region, light to moderate winds will be shifting from south to the northwest
tomorrow and then back to the south to southwest tomorrow night. Temperatures will be warm today, with clear mostly
sunny skies over the Texas Juniperus ashei populations. Similar moderate to favorable pollen release conditions
are expected over the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei populations. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin
and San Antonio indicate continued high concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees are in their
main period of pollination, conditions are moderate to favorable conditions for release in the Oklahoma populations.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SAN ANGELO
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The University
of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and
Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039).
This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the
region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
Return to Forecasting Home Page