The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 10 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 10 TX/OK: The weather today will be partly cloudy to the north and sunny to the south with increasing cloudiness southward tomorrow. Skies across Oklahoma this morning and afternoon will be partly cloudy becoming mostly sunny near the Texas border. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the mid to upper 50s from north to south. Winds across the region will be from the northwest moderate this morning, 10 to 20 mph, gusting higher towards the afternoon with gusts from 35 to 45 mph. Overnight winds will decrease to 10 mph still from the northwest. Overnight, temperatures will be in the mid to lower 30s. Tomorrow during the day and into tomorrow night skies will continue to be partly cloudy with winds switching to the south at 10 mph during the day decreasing to light and variable conditions overnight. Friday night, temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 30s from north to south. In Texas, mostly sunny conditions will occur today with mostly clear conditions overnight. Fog will build in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau into tomorrow. Temperatures today will remain moderately warm, in the mid 60s across the Edwards Plateau and in the mid to low 70s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds across central Texas will start from the north to northwest, switching to the south on the Edwards Plateau overnight but remaining from the north along the edge of the Plateau. Winds will be moderate from 10 to 15 mph on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding edge communities. Friday, skies will be mostly cloudy over the Plateau and mostly sunny along the edge communities from Austin to San Antonio. Temperatures will remain similar to today, with winds changing to a south to southwest direction on the Plateau and the southeast in the surrounding edge communities. Low temperatures overnight on Friday will remain the same as tonight on the Edwards Plateau but will warm by 5 degrees in the edge communities.

Trajectory weather: Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by the predominantly northwestern breezes today, moving the wind trajectories southeasterly from the Arbuckles over eastern Texas and Louisiana. Temperatures will remain seasonal in the mid to upper 50s, but with increasing cloudiness overnight into tomorrow. The combination of mild temperatures and clear skies today over the southern Oklahoma Juniperus ashei population create moderate to favorable conditions for pollen release. However, wind characteristics show sinking atmospheric conditions suggesting poor characteristics for entrainment of released pollen. Weather conditions make for a forecast of moderate pollen release and entrainment from the Arbuckle Mountains. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau south across the southern portion of Texas today and tonight then loop towards the west and finally back over the Edwards Plateau tomorrow during the day and evening. The atmosphere over the Edwards Plateau appears to be relatively stable to sinking conditions with relatively more buoyant conditions from the northwestern portion of the Edwards Plateau.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat today; Moderate to Favorable pollen release conditions in Oklahoma, Moderate to Favorable pollen release conditions in Texas *** Temperatures will warm today, with clear skies over the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei populations. Overall moderate to favorable pollen release conditions are expected in southern Oklahoma today with northwest winds will carry entrained pollen into eastern Texas into Louisiana. Conditions are better further south over the Edwards Plateau, with the wind trajectories swirling over the Edwards Plateau and through communities in southernmost Texas and northeastern Mexico before moving back northward. Throughout the region, moderate to strong winds from the northwest will be shifting to the southern quadrant and then back to west. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate continued high concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees are in their main period of pollination, conditions are moderate to favorable conditions for release in the Oklahoma populations, but with poor conditions for entrainment and long-distance travel.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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