The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Low |
Austin |
High |
San Antonio |
High |
Date Issued: 10 January 2008
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Thursday, January 10 TX/OK:
The weather today will be partly cloudy to the north and sunny to the south with increasing cloudiness southward
tomorrow. Skies across Oklahoma this morning and afternoon will be partly cloudy becoming mostly sunny near the
Texas border. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the mid to upper 50s from north to south. Winds across the
region will be from the northwest moderate this morning, 10 to 20 mph, gusting higher towards the afternoon with
gusts from 35 to 45 mph. Overnight winds will decrease to 10 mph still from the northwest. Overnight, temperatures
will be in the mid to lower 30s. Tomorrow during the day and into tomorrow night skies will continue to be partly
cloudy with winds switching to the south at 10 mph during the day decreasing to light and variable conditions overnight.
Friday night, temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 30s from north to south. In Texas, mostly sunny conditions
will occur today with mostly clear conditions overnight. Fog will build in the communities surrounding the Edwards
Plateau into tomorrow. Temperatures today will remain moderately warm, in the mid 60s across the Edwards Plateau
and in the mid to low 70s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds across central Texas will start
from the north to northwest, switching to the south on the Edwards Plateau overnight but remaining from the north
along the edge of the Plateau. Winds will be moderate from 10 to 15 mph on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding
edge communities. Friday, skies will be mostly cloudy over the Plateau and mostly sunny along the edge communities
from Austin to San Antonio. Temperatures will remain similar to today, with winds changing to a south to southwest
direction on the Plateau and the southeast in the surrounding edge communities. Low temperatures overnight on
Friday will remain the same as tonight on the Edwards Plateau but will warm by 5 degrees in the edge communities.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau south across the southern portion
of Texas today and tonight then loop towards the west and finally back over the Edwards Plateau tomorrow during
the day and evening.. The atmosphere over the Edwards Plateau appears to be relatively stable to sinking conditions
with relatively more buoyant conditions from the northwestern portion of the Edwards Plateau. Populations in the
Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by the predominantly northwestern breezes today, moving the wind trajectories
southeasterly over eastern Texas and Louisiana. Temperatures will remain seasonal in the mid to upper 50s to low
60s, but with increasing cloudiness overnight into tomorrow. The combination of warm temperatures and clear skies
today over the Texas Juniperus ashei population creates moderate to favorable conditions for pollen release and
favorable conditions for entrainment and travel, especially in the western to northwestern Juniperus ashei populations
. Wind characteristics show stable to sinking atmospheric conditions initially that then switch to more buoyant
conditions late tonight and tomorrow. These characteristics suggest poor conditions for entrainment of released
pollen. Weather conditions make for a forecast of moderate to favorable for pollen release and entrainment over
central Texas.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High threat today; Moderate to Favorable pollen release and entrainment conditions on the Edwards
Plateau*** Conditions are moderate to favorable for pollen release and entrainment over the Edwards
Plateau, with the wind trajectories moving entrained pollen south of the Edwards Plateau, into northeastern Mexico
before turning back over the Plateau region tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Throughout the region, moderate to
strong winds will be shifting from the northwest to the southern quadrant tomorrow and then back toward the west.
Temperatures will be warm today, with clear mostly sunny skies over the Texas Juniperus ashei populations. Regions
south of the main Juniperus ashei populations should expect significant levels of pollen today, tonight and into
tomorrow. Similar moderate to favorable pollen release conditions are expected over the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei
populations. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate continued high concentrations
of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees are in their main period of pollination, conditions are moderate to
favorable conditions for release in the Oklahoma populations.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SAN ANGELO
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The University
of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and
Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039).
This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the
region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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