The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 10 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 10 TX/OK: The weather today will be partly cloudy to the north and sunny to the south with increasing cloudiness southward tomorrow. Skies across Oklahoma this morning and afternoon will be partly cloudy becoming mostly sunny near the Texas border. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the mid to upper 50s from north to south. Winds across the region will be from the northwest moderate this morning, 10 to 20 mph, gusting higher towards the afternoon with gusts from 35 to 45 mph. Overnight winds will decrease to 10 mph still from the northwest. Overnight, temperatures will be in the mid to lower 30s. Tomorrow during the day and into tomorrow night skies will continue to be partly cloudy with winds switching to the south at 10 mph during the day decreasing to light and variable conditions overnight. Friday night, temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 30s from north to south. In Texas, mostly sunny conditions will occur today with mostly clear conditions overnight. Fog will build in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau into tomorrow. Temperatures today will remain moderately warm, in the mid 60s across the Edwards Plateau and in the mid to low 70s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds across central Texas will start from the north to northwest, switching to the south on the Edwards Plateau overnight but remaining from the north along the edge of the Plateau. Winds will be moderate from 10 to 15 mph on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding edge communities. Friday, skies will be mostly cloudy over the Plateau and mostly sunny along the edge communities from Austin to San Antonio. Temperatures will remain similar to today, with winds changing to a south to southwest direction on the Plateau and the southeast in the surrounding edge communities. Low temperatures overnight on Friday will remain the same as tonight on the Edwards Plateau but will warm by 5 degrees in the edge communities.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau south across the southern portion of Texas today and tonight then loop towards the west and finally back over the Edwards Plateau tomorrow during the day and evening.. The atmosphere over the Edwards Plateau appears to be relatively stable to sinking conditions with relatively more buoyant conditions from the northwestern portion of the Edwards Plateau. Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by the predominantly northwestern breezes today, moving the wind trajectories southeasterly over eastern Texas and Louisiana. Temperatures will remain seasonal in the mid to upper 50s to low 60s, but with increasing cloudiness overnight into tomorrow. The combination of warm temperatures and clear skies today over the Texas Juniperus ashei population creates moderate to favorable conditions for pollen release and favorable conditions for entrainment and travel, especially in the western to northwestern Juniperus ashei populations . Wind characteristics show stable to sinking atmospheric conditions initially that then switch to more buoyant conditions late tonight and tomorrow. These characteristics suggest poor conditions for entrainment of released pollen. Weather conditions make for a forecast of moderate to favorable for pollen release and entrainment over central Texas.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High threat today; Moderate to Favorable pollen release and entrainment conditions on the Edwards Plateau*** Conditions are moderate to favorable for pollen release and entrainment over the Edwards Plateau, with the wind trajectories moving entrained pollen south of the Edwards Plateau, into northeastern Mexico before turning back over the Plateau region tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Throughout the region, moderate to strong winds will be shifting from the northwest to the southern quadrant tomorrow and then back toward the west. Temperatures will be warm today, with clear mostly sunny skies over the Texas Juniperus ashei populations. Regions south of the main Juniperus ashei populations should expect significant levels of pollen today, tonight and into tomorrow. Similar moderate to favorable pollen release conditions are expected over the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei populations. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate continued high concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees are in their main period of pollination, conditions are moderate to favorable conditions for release in the Oklahoma populations.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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