The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 11 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, January 11 TX/OK: The weather today will be partly cloudy today with mild conditions. Skies across Oklahoma this morning and afternoon will be partly cloudy clearing overnight in central Oklahoma. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the upper 50s to low 60s from north to south. Winds across the region will be from the south along the Texas border to southwest in central Oklahoma and moderate to light. Overnight winds will decrease to less than 10 mph from the west to northwest. Overnight, temperatures will be in the mid to lower 30s. Tomorrow during the day and into tomorrow night skies will be partly cloudy clearing towards the evening hours with winds from the north to northwest and moderate to light. Saturday night, temperatures will cool by 5 degrees into the lower 30s to upper 20s with light and variable winds. In Texas, partly cloudy conditions will occur today and tonight on the Edwards Plateau and sunny becoming partly cloudy along the eastern and southern edge of the Plateau. Temperatures today will remain moderately warm, in the upper 60s to 70 across the Edwards Plateau and in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds across central Texas will be from the south to southwest today and overnight. Winds will be moderate from 10 to 15 mph on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding edge communities. Friday, skies will be partly cloudy over the Plateau and mostly sunny along the edge communities from Austin to San Antonio. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on the Plateau, about a 5 degree decrease, but similar in the surrounding communities. Winds will shift to the north to northwest on Saturday morning. Low temperatures overnight on Saturday will cool about 5 degrees on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities.

Trajectory weather: Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by the predominantly southern breezes today, moving the wind trajectories southward tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will remain seasonal in the mid to upper 50s to low 60s, but with partly cloudy conditions south and clearing overnight to the north. The combination of warm temperatures and partly cloudy skies today over the southern Oklahoma Juniperus ashei population create moderate to favorable conditions for pollen release. Wind characteristics show buoyant atmospheric conditions suggest moderate to favorable characteristics for entrainment of released pollen. Weather conditions make for a forecast of a moderate to high threat in Oklahoma City with the potential for pollen reaching the Tulsa region and mid elevation winds from the Arbuckle Mountains. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau northeast towards the southeast corner of Oklahoma and into Arkansas. Tonight as winds shift from the south to the northwest the trajectories shift back into east Texas especially for trajectories at the lowest elevations. The atmosphere over the Edwards Plateau appears to be relatively stable to the east versus more buoyant conditions to the west.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High threat today; Moderate to Favorable pollen release conditions in Oklahoma, Moderate to Favorable pollen release conditions in Texas *** Temperatures will warm today, with partly cloudy skies over the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei populations. Overall moderate to favorable pollen release conditions are expected in southern Oklahoma today with southerly winds carrying entrained pollen into central Oklahoma. Conditions are better further south over the Edwards Plateau, with the wind trajectories moving northeast across southeastern Oklahoma before being turned southward over eastern Texas. Throughout the region, moderate winds from the southern quadrant will be shifting to the north to northwest late tonight and into tomorrow. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio continue to indicate high concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees are in their main period of pollination, conditions are moderate to favorable conditions for release in the Oklahoma populations, and with moderate to favorable conditions for entrainment and long-distance travel.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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