The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 11 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, January 11 TX/OK: The weather today will be partly cloudy today with mild conditions. Skies across Oklahoma this morning and afternoon will be partly cloudy clearing overnight in central Oklahoma. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the upper 50s to low 60s from north to south. Winds across the region will be from the south along the Texas border to southwest in central Oklahoma and moderate to light. Overnight winds will decrease to less than 10 mph from the west to northwest. Overnight, temperatures will be in the mid to lower 30s. Tomorrow during the day and into tomorrow night skies will be partly cloudy clearing towards the evening hours with winds from the north to northwest and moderate to light. Saturday night, temperatures will cool by 5 degrees into the lower 30s to upper 20s with light and variable winds. In Texas, partly cloudy conditions will occur today and tonight on the Edwards Plateau and sunny becoming partly cloudy along the eastern and southern edge of the Plateau. Temperatures today will remain moderately warm, in the upper 60s to 70 across the Edwards Plateau and in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds across central Texas will be from the south to southwest today and overnight. Winds will be moderate from 10 to 15 mph on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding edge communities. Friday, skies will be partly cloudy over the Plateau and mostly sunny along the edge communities from Austin to San Antonio. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on the Plateau, about a 5 degree decrease, but similar in the surrounding communities. Winds will shift to the north to northwest on Saturday morning. Low temperatures overnight on Saturday will cool about 5 degrees on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau northeast towards the southeast corner of Oklahoma and into Arkansas. Tonight as winds shift from the south to the northwest the trajectories shift back into east Texas especially for trajectories at the lowest elevations. The atmosphere over the Edwards Plateau appears to be relatively stable to the east versus more buoyant conditions to the west. Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by the predominantly southern breezes today, moving the wind trajectories southward tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will remain seasonal in the mid to upper 60s reaching into the 70's in places, but with partly cloudy conditions over the Edwards Plateau and sunny skies along the edge communities. The combination of warm temperatures and partly cloudy to sunny skies today over the central Texas Juniperus ashei population create favorable conditions for pollen release. Wind characteristics show buoyant atmospheric conditions on the western portions of the Edwards Plateau suggesting favorable characteristics for entrainment of released pollen. Weather conditions make for a forecast of a moderate to high threat in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau as well as a swath across northern Texas, including Dallas/ Ft. Worth, into southeastern Oklahoma then back into eastern Texas.

OUTLOOK: *** High threat today; Favorable pollen release and entrainment conditions on the Edwards Plateau*** Conditions are favorable for pollen release and entrainment over the Edwards Plateau, with the wind trajectories moving entrained pollen north to northeast of the Edwards Plateau, into south to southeastern Oklahoma before turning southward back over eastern Texas tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Throughout the region, moderate winds will be shifting from the south to the northern quadrant tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Temperatures will be warm today, with partly cloudy skies over the Texas Juniperus ashei populations. Regions directly north and to the north east of the main Juniperus ashei populations should expect significant levels of pollen today, tonight and into tomorrow. Similar favorable pollen release conditions are expected over the Oklahoma Juniperus asheii populations. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate continued high concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees are in their main period of pollination, conditions are favorable for release in the Oklahoma populations.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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