The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Saturday and Sunday
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Low |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 12 January 2008
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Saturday and Sunday, January 12 and
13 TX/OK: The weather today and tomorrow will be relatively mild and calm before a front moves through during
the middle of next week. The region will experience seasonal temperatures with mostly cloudy skies early giving
way to mostly sunny skies late. Mostly cloudy skies and a 30% chance of thunderstorms is forecast for this morning
in southern Oklahoma near the Texas Border. Tonight skies will clear across the region. Temperatures in Oklahoma
will be cool with highs in the mid 50s. Winds across the region will be light to moderate from the north today
and tonight shifting towards the NNE early tomorrow in the southern part of the state and NW to W in central Oklahoma.
Overnight temperatures will be in the low- to mid- 30s from north to south. In Texas, temperatures today will
be in the upper 50s to low 60s across the Edwards Plateau and in the upper 60s to 70 in the surrounding edge communities.
Winds across central Texas will be from the northwest and moderate, 10/15. Overnight the skies will be clear
with winds becoming light, 0 to 5 mph. Low temperatures will be in the lower 30s on the Edwards Plateau to lower
40s in the surrounding edge communities. Winds will be light and from the north to northwest over the region.
Sunday: Sunday during the day skies will be sunny across the southern Great Plains. Sunday night, skies will be
mostly clear with partly cloudy conditions occurring over the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures on Sunday in Oklahoma
will continue to be in the lower 50s north and mid-50s to the south. Winds will be light to moderate from the
north to northwest moving towards the west to northwest. Low temperatures Sunday evening will be in the lower
30s to the north and mid-30s further south. Winds will be light from the south to southwest. In Texas, Sunday
temperatures will rise to the upper 50s and lower 60s on the Edwards Plateau and the low to mid-60s in the communities
along the eastern and southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain light to moderate, 5 to 10 mph from
north to northeast. Low temperatures Sunday night, will be in the mid- to lower 30s across the Plateau and in
the lower 40s along the edge communities including Austin and San Antonio. Winds will be calm overnight.
Trajectory weather: A potential of thunderstorms exists for the northern border region of Texas and southern
areas of Oklahoma. Once those conditions pass, the skies will clear across the entire region. Populations in
the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by northern winds; air mass trajectories indicate that any entrained
pollen will be carried due south into central Texas. However, the chance of thunderstorms will dampen potential
release Tomorrow, winds will be from the west moving any entrained pollen due east towards southern Arkansas
into northern Louisiana. Skies will be clear and temperatures in the mid- 50s. Wind characteristics today are
relatively buoyant to begin with but then show increasing density, moving at ground level. There is still a 30%
chance of precipitation in the area, thus release should be dampened. Tomorrow more stable conditions are forecast.
Today's atmospheric conditions suggest poor to moderate conditions for entrainment and with only moderate winds
for pollen transport if it is released. Conditions will improve tomorrow as the area continues to dry out. Weather
conditions make for a forecast of poor to moderate for pollen release and entrainment from the Arbuckle Mountains
population today and improving to moderate to favorable tomorrow. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards
Plateau southeastward on northwest winds across southern Texas and into the Gulf of Mexico.
OUTLOOK: *** Poor to Moderate threat today, Moderate threat tomorrow, Poor to Moderate
conditions for pollen release today, Favorable conditions for pollen release tomorrow,
Poor to Moderate conditions for pollen entrainment and travel
today, Moderate to Good conditions for pollen entrainment and
travel tomorrow *** Moderate temperatures and the potential for thunderstorms early today makes for poor to
moderate conditions for pollen release in Oklahoma today, with improving conditions tomorrow. Pollen collection
in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate high concentrations of pollen are still present in
the atmosphere thus the trees continue in their main period of pollination, although levels should be starting
to decrease soon. With moderate atmospheric conditions and temperatures along with a north wind, pollen dispersion
downwind will put allergy sufferers in south central Texas and across the Edwards Plateau at risk today and tomorrow.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Sulfur, OK.
SATURDAY
SUNDAY
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University
of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K
Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental
Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This
forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region
and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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