The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Saturday/Sunday

 

Date Issued: 12 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Saturday and Sunday, January 12 and 13 TX/OK: The weather today and tomorrow will be relatively mild and calm before a front moves through during the middle of next week. The region will experience seasonal temperatures with mostly cloudy skies early giving way to mostly sunny skies late. Mostly cloudy skies and a 30% chance of thunderstorms is forecast for this morning in southern Oklahoma near the Texas Border. Tonight skies will clear across the region. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be cool with highs in the mid 50s. Winds across the region will be light to moderate from the north today and tonight shifting towards the NNE early tomorrow in the southern part of the state and NW to W in central Oklahoma. Overnight temperatures will be in the low- to mid- 30s from north to south. In Texas, temperatures today will be in the upper 50s to low 60s across the Edwards Plateau and in the upper 60s to 70 in the surrounding edge communities. Winds across central Texas will be from the northwest and moderate, 10/15. Overnight the skies will be clear with winds becoming light, 0 to 5 mph. Low temperatures will be in the lower 30s on the Edwards Plateau to lower 40s in the surrounding edge communities. Winds will be light and from the north to northwest over the region.

Sunday: Sunday during the day skies will be sunny across the southern Great Plains. Sunday night, skies will be mostly clear with partly cloudy conditions occurring over the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures on Sunday in Oklahoma will continue to be in the lower 50s north and mid-50s to the south. Winds will be light to moderate from the north to northwest moving towards the west to northwest. Low temperatures Sunday evening will be in the lower 30s to the north and mid-30s further south. Winds will be light from the south to southwest. In Texas, Sunday temperatures will rise to the upper 50s and lower 60s on the Edwards Plateau and the low to mid-60s in the communities along the eastern and southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain light to moderate, 5 to 10 mph from north to northeast. Low temperatures Sunday night, will be in the mid- to lower 30s across the Plateau and in the lower 40s along the edge communities including Austin and San Antonio. Winds will be calm overnight.

Trajectory weather: A potential of thunderstorms exists for the northern border region of Texas and southern areas of Oklahoma. Once those conditions pass, the skies will clear across the entire region. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau southeastward on northwest winds across southern Texas and into the Gulf of Mexico. Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by northern winds that will take any entrained pollen due south into central Texas. However, the chance of thunderstorms will dampen potential release Tomorrow, winds across Texas will be light and sill swirl any entrained pollen clockwise across the Edwards Plateau, eventually pushing the trajectories due east across southern Oklahoma, into central Arkansas, northeastern Texas into northern Louisiana. Skies will be clear and temperatures in the low-60s. Wind characteristics today are influenced by increasing density from the northerly winds. Tomorrow more stable conditions are forecast. Today's atmospheric conditions suggest moderate to favorable conditions for entrainment and with moderate winds for pollen transport. Conditions will improve tomorrow as the area continues to dry out. Weather conditions make for a forecast of favorable for pollen release and entrainment from the Edwards Plateau population today with improving conditions tomorrow. Lighter winds will tend to concentrate pollen in and around the Juniperus ashei populations.

OUTLOOK: ****High threat today, High threat tomorrow, Favorable conditions for pollen release today, Favorable conditions for pollen release tomorrow, Moderate to Favorable conditions for pollen entrainment and travel today, Moderate to Favorable conditions for pollen entrainment and travel tomorrow *** Moderate temperatures and drying conditions during the afternoons will be moderate to favorable for pollen release on the Edwards Plateau today and tomorrow. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate high concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees are in their main period of pollination. With good atmospheric conditions and warm temperatures significant pollen dispersion downwind will put allergy sufferers in southern to southeaster Texas and around the Edwards Plateau at risk today and tomorrow. In addition, local populations in the eastern edge communities (San Antonio, Austin, Waco) will also see significant levels of pollen both today and on Sunday.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN (SATURDAY)

JUNCTION (SATURDAY)

SAN ANGELO (SATURDAY)

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE (SATURDAY)

AUSTIN (SUNDAY)

JUNCTION (SUNDAY)

SAN ANGELO (SUNDAY)

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE (SUNDAY)

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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