The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Monday/Tuesday

 

Date Issued: 14 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, January 14 and 15 TX/OK: The weather today and tomorrow will be relatively mild and cooler than this weekend, before a front moves through during the middle of next week. The region will experience seasonal temperatures with partly cloudy skies with winds out of the northwest in Oklahoma and from the east to southeast across the Edwards Plateau and it surrounding communities. Partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, is forecast in central and southern Oklahoma near the Texas Border. Tonight skies will clear across the region. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be cool from the mid to upper 20s and light to variable breezes from the central to southern areas. In Texas, temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 50s across the Edwards Plateau and in the lower to mid 60s in the surrounding edge communities. Winds across central Texas will be from the southeast to east and light to moderate, 5/10 mph. Overnight skies will be partly to mostly cloudy around the edge communities with light to moderate winds from the east switching to the southwest overnight, and partly cloudy over the Edwards Plateau with winds from the southwest with winds becoming light, 0 to 5 mph. Low temperatures will be in the lower 30s on the Edwards Plateau to lower 40s in the surrounding edge communities.

Tuesday during the day skies will be mostly to partly cloudy across the southern Great Plains. Tuesday night, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with increasing chance of precipitation throughout Texas. Temperatures on Tuesday in Oklahoma will continue to be in the upper 50s to low 60s from north to south. Winds will be light to moderate from the south. Low temperatures Tuesday evening will be in the mid 30s to the north and low 40s further south. Winds will be moderate from the south. In Texas, Skies throughout Texas will be partly to mostly cloudy on Tuesday. Tuesday temperatures will rise to the upper 50s on the Edwards Plateau and the low to mid 60s in the communities along the eastern and southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain light to moderate, 5 to 15 mph from the south during the day shifting to the eastern quadrant overnight. Low temperatures Tuesday night, will be in the mid- to upper 30's across the Plateau and in the lower 40's along the edge communities including Austin and San Antonio. Winds will continue to be moderate overnight.

Trajectory weather: Conditions today and tomorrow will begin to degrade towards a front moving through on Wednesday. Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by northwestern winds that will take any entrained pollen southeast into central Texas. Tomorrow, winds will shift into the southern quadrant moving entrained pollen north to northeast up over northeastern Oklahoma, into Missouri. Skies will be partly cloud but with temperatures in the 50s. Wind characteristics today and tomorrow are relatively buoyant and relatively good for entrainment and travel. Today's atmospheric conditions suggest moderate conditions for entrainment and moderate winds for pollen transport that is released. Weather conditions make for a forecast of moderate for pollen release and entrainment from the Arbuckle Mountains population today into north Texas. East winds will move trajectories almost due west from the Edwards Plateau toward New Mexico, Arizona, and northern Mexico. Winds from the eastern portion of the Edward Plateau will shift northward over western Texas heading towards the Texas panhandle. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau westward on eastern winds across west Texas and into the American Southwest. Tomorrow southerly winds will move entrained pollen north over Oklahoma on a northeastern tact. These pollen concentrations will join those from the Arbuckle Mountains that are moving north to northeast.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today, Moderate to High threat tomorrow, Moderate conditions for pollen release today, Moderate to conditions for pollen release tomorrow, Moderate conditions for pollen entrainment and travel today, Moderate conditions for pollen entrainment and travel tomorrow *** Moderate temperatures but with cloudy skies today makes for moderate conditions for pollen release in Oklahoma today with any entrained pollen heading towards Texas. Tomorrow winds will shift to the south with moderate pollen release and entrainment conditions that once released will be carried north to northeastward over Oklahoma and into Missouri. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio still indicate high concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees continue in their main period of pollination, although levels should be starting to decrease soon. Moderate atmospheric conditions and temperatures today, along with a northwest wind will move pollen downwind and put allergy sufferers in northeast Texas at risk. Tomorrow, a southerly wind will move pollen towards the northeastern portions of Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas and into Missouri.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

MONDAY

TUESDAY

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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