The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Monday/Tuesday

 

Date Issued: 14 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, January 14 and 15 TX/OK: The weather today and tomorrow will be relatively mild and cooler than this weekend, before a front moves through during the middle of next week. The region will experience seasonal temperatures with partly cloudy skies with winds out of the northwest in Oklahoma and from the east to southeast across the Edwards Plateau and it surrounding communities. Partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, is forecast in central and southern Oklahoma near the Texas Border. Tonight skies will clear across the region. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be cool from the mid to upper 20s and light to variable breezes from the central to southern areas. In Texas, temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 50s across the Edwards Plateau and in the lower to mid 60s in the surrounding edge communities. Winds across central Texas will be from the southeast to east and light to moderate, 5/10 mph. Overnight skies will be partly to mostly cloudy around the edge communities with light to moderate winds from the east switching to the southwest overnight, and partly cloudy over the Edwards Plateau with winds from the southwest with winds becoming light, 0 to 5 mph. Low temperatures will be in the lower 30s on the Edwards Plateau to lower 40s in the surrounding edge communities.

Tuesday during the day skies will be mostly to partly cloudy across the southern Great Plains. Tuesday night, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with increasing chance of precipitation throughout Texas. Temperatures on Tuesday in Oklahoma will continue to be in the upper 50s to low 60s from north to south. Winds will be light to moderate from the south. Low temperatures Tuesday evening will be in the mid 30s to the north and low 40s further south. Winds will be moderate from the south. In Texas, Skies throughout Texas will be partly to mostly cloudy on Tuesday. Tuesday temperatures will rise to the upper 50s on the Edwards Plateau and the low to mid 60s in the communities along the eastern and southern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain light to moderate, 5 to 15 mph from the south during the day shifting to the eastern quadrant overnight. Low temperatures Tuesday night, will be in the mid- to upper 30's across the Plateau and in the lower 40's along the edge communities including Austin and San Antonio. Winds will continue to be moderate overnight.

Trajectory weather: Conditions today and tomorrow will begin to degrade towards a front moving through on Wednesday. East winds will move trajectories almost due west from the Edwards Plateau toward New Mexico, Arizona, and northern Mexico. Winds from the eastern portion of the Edward Plateau will shift northward over western Texas heading towards the Texas panhandle. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau westward on eastern winds across west Texas and into the American Southwest. Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by northwestern winds that will take any entrained pollen southeast into central Texas. Tomorrow, winds will shift into the southern quadrant moving entrained pollen north to northeast up over northeastern Oklahoma, into Missouri. Skies will be partly cloud but with temperatures in the 50's to mid and upper 60's in the edge communities. Wind characteristics today and tomorrow are relatively buoyant and relatively good for entrainment and travel. Today's atmospheric conditions suggest favorable conditions for entrainment and favorable winds for pollen transport that is released. Weather conditions make for a forecast of moderate to favorable for pollen release and entrainment from the Arbuckle Mountains population today into north Texas, Tomorrow southerly winds will move entrained pollen north over Oklahoma on a northeastern tact. However an increasing chance of rain over the Texas populations will dampen the amount of pollen released. The amount of precipitation across the region will determine the amount of pollen entrained into the atmosphere. These pollen concentrations will join those from the Arbuckle mountains that are moving north to northeast

OUTLOOK: ****High threat today, Moderate to High threat tomorrow, Favorable conditions for pollen release today, Moderate conditions for pollen release tomorrow, Favorable conditions for pollen entrainment and travel today, Moderate conditions for pollen entrainment and travel tomorrow *** Moderate temperatures but with partly to mostly cloudy conditions today and tomorrow result in a high threat today but an increased chance of rain tomorrow will moderate pollen release conditions on the Edwards Plateau Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate high concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees are in their main period of pollination. With good atmospheric conditions and moderate temperatures significant pollen dispersion downwind will put allergy sufferers in western Texas, southern New Mexico and Arizona at risk today and tomorrow. In addition, local populations in the eastern edge communities (San Antonio, Austin, Waco) will also see significant levels of pollen both today and on Tuesday if pollen is released. Levels today should be lower than recently with the predominantly eastern wind blowing pollen from local trees towards the Edwards Plateau rather than the reverse conditions which is more normal at this time of year.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN (MONDAY)

JUNCTION (MONDAY)

SAN ANGELO (MONDAY)

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE (MONDAY)

AUSTIN (TUESDAY)

JUNCTION (TUESDAY)

SAN ANGELO (TUESDAY)

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE (TUESDAY)

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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