The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 17 January 2008


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Thursday, January 17 TX/OK: The weather today will be cloudy and cold. Skies across Oklahoma this morning and afternoon will be partly cloudy to cloudy becoming sunnier near the Texas border tomorrow. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the mid 30s. Winds across the region will be from the northwest and light to moderate today, 10 to 15 mph. Overnight winds will decrease to 10 mph from the southwest towards the north and light and variable towards the south.. Overnight, temperatures will be in the lower 20s. Tomorrow during the day and into tomorrow night skies will continue to be partly cloudy with winds switching to the north to northeast at 10 mph. Friday night, temperatures will remain in the lower 20s to upper teens. In Texas, mostly cloudy to partly cloudy conditions will occur today with increasing clouds overnight and an increasing chance of precipitation in the edge communities. Temperatures today will remain mid to upper 30s across the Edwards Plateau and in the low 40s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds across central Texas will start from the north to northeast today and tonight, switching to the southwest in extreme northwestern portion on the Edwards Plateau overnight. Winds will be light to moderate from 5 to 10 mph on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding edge communities. Friday, skies will be partly cloudy over the Plateau and mostly cloudy along the edge communities from Austin to San Antonio, with a 40% chance of precipitation. Temperatures will warm by 5 degrees from today, with winds changing to the northern quadrant once again. Low temperatures overnight on Friday will be in the low to mid 20s across the Edwards Plateau and near freezing in the edge communities.

Trajectory weather: Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by the predominantly northwestern winds today, moving the wind trajectories southeasterly, then abruptly north to northeast before turning south again. Temperatures will be cold, in the 30s and down to the 20s overnight, with decreasing cloudiness overnight into tomorrow along the Texas border. The combination of cold temperatures and cloudy skies today over the southern Oklahoma Juniperus ashei population create poor conditions for pollen release. Wind characteristics are also poor for entrainment of any released pollen. Weather conditions make for a forecast of poor pollen release and entrainment from the Arbuckle Mountains.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today; Low pollen release conditions in Oklahoma, Low pollen release conditions in Texas *** Temperatures will remain cold today, with partly clooudy skies over the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei populations. Conditions are too cold for pollen release

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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