The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Low to Moderate

San Antonio

Low to Moderate

 

Date Issued: 17 January 2008


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Thursday, January 17 TX/OK: The weather today will be cloudy and cold. Skies across Oklahoma this morning and afternoon will be partly cloudy to cloudy becoming sunnier near the Texas border tomorrow. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the mid 30s. Winds across the region will be from the northwest and light to moderate today, 10 to 15 mph. Overnight winds will decrease to 10 mph from the southwest towards the north and light and variable towards the south.. Overnight, temperatures will be in the lower 20s. Tomorrow during the day and into tomorrow night skies will continue to be partly cloudy with winds switching to the north to northeast at 10 mph. Friday night, temperatures will remain in the lower 20s to upper teens. In Texas, mostly cloudy to partly cloudy conditions will occur today with increasing clouds overnight and an increasing chance of precipitation in the edge communities. Temperatures today will remain mid to upper 30s across the Edwards Plateau and in the low 40s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds across central Texas will start from the north to northeast today and tonight, switching to the southwest in extreme northwestern portion on the Edwards Plateau overnight. Winds will be light to moderate from 5 to 10 mph on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding edge communities. Friday, skies will be partly cloudy over the Plateau and mostly cloudy along the edge communities from Austin to San Antonio, with a 40% chance of precipitation. Temperatures will warm by 5 degrees from today, with winds changing to the northern quadrant once again. Low temperatures overnight on Friday will be in the low to mid 20s across the Edwards Plateau and near freezing in the edge communities.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau south across the southern portion of Texas today on light winds, with trajectories from the western regions of the Plateau moving back towards the north later tonight and into tomorrow.. The atmosphere over the Edwards Plateau is stable to sinking conditions as cold air moves over the region. Populations in the Edwards Plateau will be influenced by the predominantly northwestern breezes today, moving the wind trajectories southerly, then north to northeast before turning south again. Temperatures will be cold, in the upper 30s today to low 40s and down to the 30s overnight, with increasing cloudiness overnight into tomorrow along the edge communities. The combination of cold temperatures and cloudy skies today over the Texas Juniperus ashei population creates poor conditions for pollen release. Wind characteristics are also poor for entrainment of released pollen. Weather conditions make for a forecast of poor pollen release and entrainment from the Edwards Plateau, although communities close to population may seem limited impact.

OUTLOOK
: *** Low to Moderate threat today; Poor conditions for pollen release and entrainment on the Edwards Plateau*** Conditions are poor for pollen release and entrainment over the Edwards Plateau, with the wind trajectories moving any entrained pollen south of the Edwards Plateau, into southern Texas with trajectories from the northwestern portions of the Edwards Plateau moving back towards the north before turning south again tomorrow. Temperatures will be cold today, with mostly cloudy skies and precipitation along the edge communities. Regions south of the main Juniperus ashei populations should expect the chance of moderate levels of pollen today. Similarly poor release conditions are expected over the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei populations. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate continued high concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees are in their main period of pollination, however with poor conditions for release in the Juniperus ashei populations little pollen is expected.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SAN ANGELO



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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