The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Low |
Austin |
Low to Moderate |
San Antonio |
Low to Moderate |
Date Issued: 17 January 2008
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Thursday, January 17 TX/OK:
The weather today will be cloudy and cold. Skies across Oklahoma this morning and afternoon will be partly cloudy
to cloudy becoming sunnier near the Texas border tomorrow. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the mid 30s. Winds
across the region will be from the northwest and light to moderate today, 10 to 15 mph. Overnight winds will decrease
to 10 mph from the southwest towards the north and light and variable towards the south.. Overnight, temperatures
will be in the lower 20s. Tomorrow during the day and into tomorrow night skies will continue to be partly cloudy
with winds switching to the north to northeast at 10 mph. Friday night, temperatures will remain in the lower
20s to upper teens. In Texas, mostly cloudy to partly cloudy conditions will occur today with increasing clouds
overnight and an increasing chance of precipitation in the edge communities. Temperatures today will remain mid
to upper 30s across the Edwards Plateau and in the low 40s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau.
Winds across central Texas will start from the north to northeast today and tonight, switching to the southwest
in extreme northwestern portion on the Edwards Plateau overnight. Winds will be light to moderate from 5 to 10
mph on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding edge communities. Friday, skies will be partly cloudy over the
Plateau and mostly cloudy along the edge communities from Austin to San Antonio, with a 40% chance of precipitation.
Temperatures will warm by 5 degrees from today, with winds changing to the northern quadrant once again. Low
temperatures overnight on Friday will be in the low to mid 20s across the Edwards Plateau and near freezing in
the edge communities.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau south across the southern portion
of Texas today on light winds, with trajectories from the western regions of the Plateau moving back towards the
north later tonight and into tomorrow.. The atmosphere over the Edwards Plateau is stable to sinking conditions
as cold air moves over the region. Populations in the Edwards Plateau will be influenced by the predominantly
northwestern breezes today, moving the wind trajectories southerly, then north to northeast before turning south
again. Temperatures will be cold, in the upper 30s today to low 40s and down to the 30s overnight, with increasing
cloudiness overnight into tomorrow along the edge communities. The combination of cold temperatures and cloudy
skies today over the Texas Juniperus ashei population creates poor conditions for pollen release. Wind characteristics
are also poor for entrainment of released pollen. Weather conditions make for a forecast of poor pollen release
and entrainment from the Edwards Plateau, although communities close to population may seem limited impact.
OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate threat today; Poor
conditions for pollen release and entrainment on the Edwards Plateau*** Conditions are poor for pollen release
and entrainment over the Edwards Plateau, with the wind trajectories moving any entrained pollen south of the Edwards
Plateau, into southern Texas with trajectories from the northwestern portions of the Edwards Plateau moving back
towards the north before turning south again tomorrow. Temperatures will be cold today, with mostly cloudy skies
and precipitation along the edge communities. Regions south of the main Juniperus ashei populations should expect
the chance of moderate levels of pollen today. Similarly poor release conditions are expected over the Oklahoma
Juniperus ashei populations. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate continued
high concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees are in their main period of pollination, however
with poor conditions for release in the Juniperus ashei populations little pollen is expected.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SAN ANGELO
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The University
of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department
of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno
CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions
over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
Return to Forecasting Home Page