The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Saturday/Sunday

 

Date Issued: 19 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday and Sunday, Jan 19 and 20. TX/OK: A large Arctic air mass extends through the central U.S. bringing cold temperatures throughout the region today. This high pressure system will begin shifting east late this afternoon and overnight with south, southeast winds returning to the region. In Oklahoma, the high temperatures today will remain in the 30s with partly cloudy skies and moderate north to northeast winds. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 20s. Highs in Texas will range from the 40s in the north to the low 50s in the south. Skies will be clear in most areas and moderate winds from the north, north east. Overnight lows in Texas will be in the 20s to low 30s.

On Sunday temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees warmer throughout the region with high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s in Oklahoma and 50s in Texas. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy throughout the region with moderate to strong south, southeast winds.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the southwest and then curve around to the north as winds shift to southerly later today. The trajectories show moderate characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind as cold air drains into the area. Low temperatures will occur at the source site today with below freezing conditions expected overnight again. Sunday's trajectories move to the north over central Oklahoma and Kansas and then turn northeast at the upper elevations. Trajectories show moderate characteristics for downwind transport. Temperatures on Sunday will warm into the favorable range in the afternoon giving the possibility of limited pollen release.


OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today, Low to moderate threat on Sunday *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today, moderately favorable on Sunday. Sunny dry conditions will occur today, but temperatures will remain in the 30s making for unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Cold temperatures tonight and a bit of warming expected tomorrow allowing for limited pollen release especially in protected areas.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

SATURDAY

SUNDAY

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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