The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 21 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, January 21 TX/OK: The weather today and tomorrow will be cold to the north and cool southward as systems move through the region this week. The region will experience cold temperatures throughout Oklahoma with high temperatures in the low to mid 40s today and mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be out of the south during the day today in Oklahoma, but shifting to the northwest to northeast overnight. Across Oklahoma there is a 30% chance of precipitation today increasing to 40% overnight. Overnight temperatures in the 20s will result in any precipitation falling as freezing rain or light snow. High temperatures tomorrow will be even cooler barely getting into the high 30s to lowest 40s. Skies will remain partly cloudy although the chance of precipitation is reduced. Low temperatures Tuesday night will return to the lower 20s and upper teens. In Texas, temperatures today will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s across the Edwards Plateau and in the mid to upper 50's in the surrounding edge communities. Skies will be Cloudy with a 20% chance of precipitation across the Plateau and a 50% chance of precipitation in the edge communities of Austin and San Antonio. Winds across central Texas will be from the south, moderate to strong (15/20 mph). Overnight skies will continue to be cloudy with light to moderate winds from the southwest on the Plateau and the southeast along the southern and eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrows temperatures will remain relatively constant with slight cooling to the northwest. Skies will remain cloudy to partly cloudy with a 20% chance of precipitation across the region, possibly falling as snow in areas across the Edwards Plateau tomorrow night. Winds will remain moderate switching from the southern quadrant to a more northeasterly direction.

Trajectory weather: Conditions today and tomorrow will degrade towards a front moving through on Wednesday. Today southern winds will move trajectories due north but will change late today and into tonight towards the south as winds shift to the north. Winds from the eastern portion of the Edward Plateau will start from the south then shift towards the southwest overnight and into the northern quadrant tomorrow morning. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau northward on southern winds which will then turn across northern Texas and southern most Oklahoma then back over the Edwards Plateau. Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by southern winds that then turn southward back over north Texas. Across the region, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with a steep temperature gradient from cool to cold temperatures in Oklahoma to temperatures in the 60's in San Antonio. Wind characteristics today and tomorrow are initially cold and heavy which is poor for entrainment and travel but more buoyant tomorrow. Cool temperatures north, and the heightened chance of precipitation across the region suggests poor conditions for release and only slightly better conditions for entrainment if any pollen is released. Weather conditions make for a forecast of poor for pollen release and entrainment from the Arbuckle Mountains population today into central Oklahoma. Tomorrow temperatures will be colder not getting out of the 30's with partly cloudy skies continuing.

OUTLOOK: ****Low to moderate threat today, Poor to mixed conditions for pollen release today, Poor conditions for pollen entrainment and travel today*** Moderate temperatures but with partly to mostly cloudy conditions today and tomorrow and the chance of precipitation region wide result in a low threat today for downwind dispersal. Areas close to Juniperus ashei populations may see limited pollen release and moderate atmospheric concentrations. The chance of precipitation continues overnight and into tomorrow, especially along the edge communities including Austin and San Antonio. If pollen is released on the Plateau, it will move northward over northern Texas and southern Oklahoma, therefore there is a chance for moderate pollen levels in northern Texas including the Dallas/Fort Worth region. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate moderate to high concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees remain in their main period of pollination. However, the overall levels of unreleased pollen should be decreasing and the end of the pollination period approaching. Today, local populations along the eastern edge communities (San Antonio, Austin, Waco) may see increased levels of pollen, if pollen is released but precipitation will wash these pollen grains out, leaving reduced levels.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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