The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 23 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 23 TX/OK: The weather today and tomorrow will be cold throughout the region as systems move through, influenced by the overall cold chill that is gripping the central portion of the United States. The region will experience cold temperatures throughout Oklahoma with high temperatures in the 30s and just reaching the 40s today with mostly partly cloudy skies. Winds will be moderate to strong switching from the southwest to west into a north to northeast direction. Winds will increase during the day and into afternoon and early evening. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid to upper teens, with winds from the north at 10 to 15 mph. High temperatures tomorrow will cool into the mid to upper 30s. Winds will be light and from the north to northeast. Skies will continue to be partly cloudy increasing to mostly cloudy overnight on Thursday. Low temperatures Thursday night will return to the mid to lower 20s with winds increasing from the southeast and a 20% chance of precipitation. In Texas, high temperatures today will cool into the lower 50s and upper 40s across the region. Today, skies will be Cloudy with a 20% chance of precipitation in the edge communities today and tonight. Winds across Texas will be from the northern quadrant and light to moderate today increasing overnight to up to 10/20 mph. Overnight skies will continue to be cloudy with moderate to strong winds and an increasing chance of precipitation. Temperatures tomorrows will remain cold and in the 30s with only the surrounding edge communities reaching the mid 40s. Skies will remain mostly cloudy with a 20% to 50% percent chance of precipitation across the region during the day and over Thursday night. Overnight temperatures Thursday night will be in the lower to mid 30s with a chance of rain, sleet and snow. Winds will remain moderate from the southeast on the Edwards Plateau and the northeast along the Plateau edge.

Trajectory weather: In the Arbuckle Mountains, northern winds will move trajectories due south on light to moderate winds from the northern quadrant today and tomorrow. Cold temperatures, remaining near 40 degrees will occur in southern Oklahoma today and will cool by ~5 degrees tomorrow. Skies will be partly cloudy throughout the region. This evening and tomorrow, mostly cloudy skies will occur throughout the region with temperatures in the teens. In Texas, temperatures on the Edwards Plateau will be cool with highs today just reaching the low 50s. Tomorrow, temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 30s. In the edge communities, temperatures will be in the low 50s, cooling into the mid 40s tomorrow. Lows across the region will be in the low to mid 30s tonight. There is an increasing chance of precipitation tonight and tomorrow The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau southward on northern winds which will then turn across western Texas and back over the Edwards Plateau into southwestern Oklahoma. Wind characteristics today are relatively cold and heavy which is poor for entrainment and travel but with more buoyant conditions tomorrow as a cold front moves through. Cold temperatures today and an increasing chance of precipitation region wide suggest poor conditions for release and entrainment of pollen from the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei populations. Tomorrow temperatures will be colder not getting out of the 30s with increasing clouds.

OUTLOOK: ****Low threat today, Poor conditions for pollen release today, Poor conditions for pollen entrainment and travel today*** Moderately cool temperatures with partly to mostly cloudy conditions today and tomorrow and the increasing chance of precipitation region wide result in a low to moderate threat today for downwind dispersal. Areas close to Juniperus ashei populations may see limited pollen release and moderate atmospheric concentrations, although high humidity and an increasing chance of precipitation will dampen release. The chance of precipitation begins overnight and into tomorrow, especially along the edge communities including Austin and San Antonio. If pollen is released on the Plateau, it will move southward over southern Texas. The western trajectories will move westward as northeast winds blow overnight, then back over the Edwards Plateau tomorrow and into southwestern Oklahoma. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate moderate concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees continue to pollinate. However, the overall levels of unreleased pollen should be decreasing and the end of the pollination period approaching. Today, local populations along the eastern edge communities (San Antonio, Austin, Waco) may see moderate levels of pollen. If pollen is released, any precipitation in the area will wash these pollen grains out of the air overnight and tomorrow, leaving reduced levels.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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