The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Low |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 24 January 2008
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Thursday, January 24 TX/OK:
The weather today and tomorrow will be cold with precipitation throughout the region as systems move through, influenced
by the overall cold chill that is gripping the central portion of the United States. The region will experience
cold temperatures throughout Oklahoma with high temperatures today in the mid to upper 30s with partly cloudy to
mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be light to moderate from the northeast direction. Overnight temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 20s, with winds switching to the southeast at 10 mph. There is an increasing chance of
precipitation tonight into tomorrow. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 30s with a 40 to 70
percent chance of precipitation from central to southern Oklahoma. Winds will be moderate to strong from the south.
Skies will continue to be mostly cloudy. Low temperatures Thursday night will be in the lower 30s with winds
from the south and moderate. In Texas, high temperatures today will cool into the lower 40s and upper 30s across
the region. Skies will be Cloudy with a 40% chance of precipitation across the Edwards Plateau and 50% to 80%
in the edge communities. Winds across Texas will be from the northeast and moderate to strong today. Overnight
skies will continue to be cloudy with light to moderate winds switching to the east and southeast over the Edwards
Plateau and maintaining a northeast direction in the edge communities. The region will have a 40% chance of precipitation
overnight. Temperatures tomorrows will warm into the 40s. Skies will remain cloudy with a 40% to 70% percent
chance of precipitation across the region during the day decreasing over Friday night. Overnight temperatures
Friday will be in the lower to upper 30s to the low 40s. Winds will remain moderate from the southeast on the
Edwards Plateau and the northeast along the Plateau edge.
Trajectory weather: In the Arbuckle Mountains, northeastern winds today will switch to the east and then
from the south over the next two day period. Trajectories will initially move south then switch to a predominantly
northerly direction tomorrow. Cold temperatures, remaining below 40 degrees will occur throughout Oklahoma both
today and tomorrow. Skies will be mostly cloudy throughout the region with an increasing chance of precipitation
tonight and tomorrow. In Texas, temperatures on the Edwards Plateau will be cool with highs today reaching the
upper 30s and low 40s. Tomorrow, temperatures will continue to be cool warming only about 5 degrees throughout
the region. Lows across the region will be in the low to mid 30s tonight and near 40 tomorrow night. There is
an increasing chance of precipitation tonight and tomorrow with the edge communities having a greater than 70%
chance of precipitation. The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains move initially southward then
quickly switch to a northerly direction. Wind characteristics today are relatively cold and heavy which is poor
for entrainment and travel. Cold temperatures today and an increasing chance of precipitation region wide suggest
poor conditions for release and entrainment of pollen from the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei populations. Tomorrow
temperatures will be similar, still in the 30s, therefore conditions for pollen release and entrainment will remain
poor.
OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today, Poor conditions for pollen release today,
Poor conditions for pollen entrainment and travel today *** Cold temperatures today with cold temperatures
overnight and cloudy skies, makes for poor conditions for pollen release in Oklahoma. Conditions tomorrow will
be similar with poor conditions for pollen release and entrainment. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco,
Austin and San Antonio still indicate moderate concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees continue
pollinating, although levels seem to be starting to decrease. Poor atmospheric conditions and cold temperatures
today with partly cloudy skies will dampen pollen release and entrainment. Similar conditions with increasing
cloudiness are expected tomorrow.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Sulfur, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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