The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 24 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 24 TX/OK: The weather today and tomorrow will be cold with precipitation throughout the region as systems move through, influenced by the overall cold chill that is gripping the central portion of the United States. The region will experience cold temperatures throughout Oklahoma with high temperatures today in the mid to upper 30s with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be light to moderate from the northeast direction. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s, with winds switching to the southeast at 10 mph. There is an increasing chance of precipitation tonight into tomorrow. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 30s with a 40 to 70 percent chance of precipitation from central to southern Oklahoma. Winds will be moderate to strong from the south. Skies will continue to be mostly cloudy. Low temperatures Thursday night will be in the lower 30s with winds from the south and moderate. In Texas, high temperatures today will cool into the lower 40s and upper 30s across the region. Skies will be Cloudy with a 40% chance of precipitation across the Edwards Plateau and 50% to 80% in the edge communities. Winds across Texas will be from the northeast and moderate to strong today. Overnight skies will continue to be cloudy with light to moderate winds switching to the east and southeast over the Edwards Plateau and maintaining a northeast direction in the edge communities. The region will have a 40% chance of precipitation overnight. Temperatures tomorrows will warm into the 40s. Skies will remain cloudy with a 40% to 70% percent chance of precipitation across the region during the day decreasing over Friday night. Overnight temperatures Friday will be in the lower to upper 30s to the low 40s. Winds will remain moderate from the southeast on the Edwards Plateau and the northeast along the Plateau edge.

Trajectory weather: In Oklahoma, northeastern winds today will switch to the east and then from the south over the next two day period. Trajectories will initially south then switch to a predominantly northerly direction tomorrow. Cold temperatures, remaining below 40 degrees will occur throughout Oklahoma both today and tomorrow. Skies will be mostly cloudy throughout the region with increasing chance of precipitation tonight and tomorrow. In Texas, temperatures on the Edwards Plateau will be cool with highs today reaching the upper 30s and low 40s. Tomorrow, temperatures will continue to be cool warming only about 5 degrees throughout the region. Lows across the region will be in the low to mid 30s tonight and near 40 tomorrow night. There is an increasing chance of precipitation tonight and tomorrow with the edge communities having a greater than 70% chance of precipitation tomorrow. The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move initially toward the southwest then switch to a northerly then northeasterly direction. Wind characteristics today are relatively cold and heavy which is poor for entrainment and travel. Cold temperatures today and an increasing chance of precipitation region wide suggest poor conditions for release and entrainment of pollen from the Edwards Plateau Juniperus ashei populations. Tomorrow temperatures will be similar not getting out of the 40s with a sustained chance of precipitation, therefore conditions will be similar.

OUTLOOK: ****Low threat today, Poor conditions for pollen release today, Poor conditions for pollen entrainment and travel today*** Cold temperatures with cloudy skies and a significant chance of precipitation, region wide, both today and tomorrow result in a low threat today and tomorrow for downwind dispersal. Areas close to Juniperus ashei populations may see limited pollen release although high humidity and an increasing chance of precipitation will dampen release. The chance of precipitation is especially high (70% to 80%) along the edge communities including Austin and San Antonio. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate moderate concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees continue to pollinate. However, the overall levels of unreleased pollen should be decreasing and the end of the pollination period approaching.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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