The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 25 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, January 25 TX/OK: The weather today will continue to be cold with precipitation throughout the region as a systems move towards the east. The region will experience cold temperatures throughout Oklahoma with high temperatures today in the mid 40s in central portion of the state and mid 30s along the Texas border with mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be moderate to strong from the south to southeast. Overnight temperatures will be in the lower 30s to upper 20s, with winds continuing from the south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph eventually becoming more light and variable. High temperatures tomorrow will finally rise back to warmer conditions as value reach into the upper 50s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will generally be light and variable across the region. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the mid to upper 30s with light and variable winds continuing. In Texas, high temperatures today will be in the 40s across the region. Skies will be Cloudy with a 60% to 70% chance of precipitation across the Edwards Plateau and in the edge communities. Winds across the Edwards Plateau will be from the south to southeast and moderate today. Along the edge communities, winds will also be light to moderate from the northeast. Overnight skies will continue to be cloudy with light winds maintaining their overall direction. The edge communities will continue to have a 20% chance of precipitation overnight. Temperatures tomorrows will warm into the upper 60s. Skies will remain cloudy over the Plateau but become partly sunny in the edge communities of San Antonio and Austin. Overnight temperatures Friday will be in the upper 30s to the low 40s. Winds will remain light and switching to the southern quadrant.

Trajectory weather: In the Arbuckle Mountains, southern winds today will remain steady today and become light and variable tomorrow. Trajectories move northward into the upper Midwest over the next 36 hours. Cold temperatures, remaining below 40 degrees will occur throughout Oklahoma both today, but with much warmer conditions tomorrow. Skies will be mostly cloudy throughout the region. In Texas, temperatures will be cool with highs today reaching into the 40s. Light to moderate winds will swirl the trajectories from all sections over the Edwards Plateau over the next 36 hours. Tomorrow, temperatures will warm substantially with regional high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. Lows across the region will be in the upper 30s to low 40s tonight, warming by about 5 degrees tomorrow night. There is a significant chance of precipitation today continuing tonight in the edge communities. Wind characteristics today are relatively cold and heavy region wide which is poor for entrainment and travel. Cold temperatures today and an increasing chance of precipitation towards the south suggest poor conditions for release and entrainment of pollen from the Oklahoma Juniperus ashei populations. Tomorrow temperatures will be much warmer, therefore conditions for pollen release and entrainment will remain will increase substantially.

OUTLOOK: ****Low threat today, Poor conditions for pollen release today, Poor conditions for pollen entrainment and travel today*** Cold temperatures with cloudy skies and a significant chance of precipitation, region wide, today results in a low threat today for downwind dispersal. Significantly warmer conditions tomorrow will increase the chance of pollen dispersal and entrainment throughout the region. Areas close to Juniperus ashei populations may see limited pollen release although high humidity and a significant chance of precipitation will dampen release. The chance of precipitation is especially high (70% to 80%) along the edge communities including Austin and San Antonio. Pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio indicate moderate concentrations of pollen in the atmosphere thus the trees continue to pollinate. However, the overall levels of unreleased pollen should be decreasing and the end of the pollination period approaching.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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