The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Saturday/Sunday

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low to Moderate/Moderate to High

Tulsa

Low to Moderate/Low to Moderate

St. Louis MO

Low/Low

 

Date Issued: 26 January 2008


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Saturday and Sunday, January 26th and 27th TX/OK: The weather today and tomorrow will return to mild conditions as temperatures warm from the cold conditions of the last week. The region will experience warming temperatures with partly cloudy skies today. Winds will be light and variable today increasing towards the evening hours then becoming moderate from the south. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will remain across the region tonight. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the 40s and 50s in Oklahoma and will cool back into the low to mid 30s overnight. Winds will be variable and be light to moderate. In Texas, temperatures today will climb into the upper 60s across the Edwards Plateau and into the surrounding edge communities. Winds across the Edwards Plateau will begin light this morning building toward light to moderate strength from west to east this evening. The Edwards Plateau and communities along the edge will have clear to partly cloudy skies. Overnight skies will be partly cloudy with low temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to the northwest rising to the upper 40s in the lower elevation edge communities such as San Antonio and Austin. Winds will remain light and from the south over the region.

Sunday: The weather Sunday will continue to be similar to Saturday but with increasing southerly winds in the afternoon and into the evening. In Oklahoma, daytime skies will be partly cloudy with high temperatures in the upper to mid 60s. Sunday night, skies will start partly cloudy building to mostly cloudy skies tonight and an increasing chance of precipitation (20%). Winds will begin in the moderate to strong category and from the south, building during the day and into the evening hours. In Texas, skies will remain partly cloudy on the Edwards Plateau and partly sunny in the surrounding edge communities. High temperatures will warm into the lower 70s across the region. Winds will be light to moderate from the southern quadrant building during the late afternoon to strong conditions into the evening. Low temperatures Sunday evening will be mild, in the lower 50s across the region.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy skies today and warming conditions will be the hallmark of the southern Great Plains today and tomorrow. Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by southerly winds after initially moving towards the southeast. Late in their travel the trajectories will pass into central to western Oklahoma along with the trajectories from the Edwards Plateau. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau northward on light to moderate winds across northern Texas and into western Oklahoma before moving towards the upper Midwest. Tomorrow, winds will be dominantly from the south moving any entrained pollen due north, across central Oklahoma towards the upper Midwest. Skies will be partly cloudy and temperatures in the low to mid-60s. . Wind characteristics today are relatively flat and heavy but begin to show more buoyant conditions tomorrow. Today's atmospheric conditions suggest moderate conditions for entrainment and with light to moderate winds for pollen transport if it is released. Conditions will improve tomorrow as the area continues to dry out, temperatures increase and winds become stronger. Weather conditions make for a forecast of poor to moderate for pollen release and entrainment from the Arbuckle Mountains population today and improving to moderate to favorable tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat today, Moderate to high threat tomorrow, Moderate conditions for pollen release today, Favorable conditions for pollen release tomorrow, Moderate conditions for pollen entrainment and travel today, Favorable conditions for pollen entrainment and travel tomorrow *** Warm temperatures but with only light winds today result in a moderate threat for pollen release and downwind movement in Oklahoma today. Conditions tomorrow will improve with a return to warm conditions and stronger winds. However, that being said we are now at the end of January which is usually the end of the Juniperus asheii pollination period. Yet, pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio still indicate high concentrations of Juniperus pollen. Juniperus virginiana (much less allergenic) traditionally starts pollination in February, thus we think that atmospheric pollen concentrations are beginning to be a mix of the two species and that the Mountain Cedar pollen season is near its end. With good atmospheric conditions and warm temperatures along with an increasingly dominant south wind, pollen dispersion downwind will put allergy sufferers in north central Texas and across central to western Oklahoma at risk today and tomorrow.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

SATURDAY


SUNDAY


Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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