The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Moderate |
Tulsa |
Moderate |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 28 January 2008
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Monday,
January 28th TX/OK: The
weather today continues with mild conditions as temperatures rise back into the 60s and 70s toward the south.
The region will experience partly to mostly cloudy skies today. Winds will be from the south and strong with sustained
winds from 20 to 30 and gust as high as 45 mph from the south. Partly cloudy skies will remain across the region
tonight. Temperatures in Oklahoma will cool back into the low to upper 30s to the north and lower 40s to the south.
Winds will move to the southwest and will be moderate to strong, 15 to 20 mph. Tomorrow skies will be mostly sunny
with cooler conditions across Oklahoma. Temperatures to the north will be in the upper 40s and upper 50s to the
south. Winds will remain strong, 20 to 40 mph, from the northwest. In Texas, temperatures today will climb into
the upper 60s to mid 70s across the Edwards Plateau and into the upper 60s in the communities along the Edwards
Plateau edge. Winds will be moderate to strong with the strongest gusts occurring to the northwest. Winds will
be from the south and range from 10 to 15 up to 20 across the Edwards Plateau and in the edge communities. Skies
will be cloudy across the region with a chance of light rain. Overnight skies will remain cloudy with low temperatures
warm and but 5 to 10 degrees from the high temperatures in the edge communities and up to 20 degrees cooler across
the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain light to moderate from the southwest on the Plateau and the south in the
surrounding communities. Tomorrow, skies will be cloudy to partly cloudy with clearing in the afternoon. Temperatures
will be in the lower 60s across the Edwards Plateau and in the 70s along the edge of the Edwards Plateau. Winds
will be moderate initially from the southwest shifting to the northwest during the afternoon becoming strong along
the edge of the Plateau. The edge communities will see a 20% chance of precipitation in the morning.
Trajectory weather: Cloudy skies today and warm conditions
will be the hallmark of the southern Great Plains today. Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced
by southerly winds that move the trajectories north. The pathway moves northward over northeast across Oklahoma
into southeast Kansas and across Missouri, before moving across the upper Midwest and into Canada above the Great
Lakes. Tomorrow, winds will switch to the northwest. Skies will be clearing and temperatures will cool by 15
to 20 degrees. Wind characteristics today are relatively flat and heavy early but begin to show more buoyant conditions
later. Today’s atmospheric conditions suggest moderate conditions for entrainment with moderate to strong winds
for pollen transport. Weather conditions make for a forecast of moderate to favorable for pollen release and entrainment
from the Arbuckle Mountains population today. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau northward
on moderate to strong winds across northern Texas into eastern Oklahoma, across Arkansas and into eastern Missouri
before heading towards the Ohio River Valley. Trajectories from the eastern portion of the population should move
further west, over northeastern Oklahoma versus the western population in which the winds move the trajectories
further towards the southeastern portion of Oklahoma.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat today, Favorable conditions for pollen release today, Favorable conditions for pollen entrainment
and travel today*** Warm temperatures with strong winds
today result in favorable conditions for pollen release, entrainment, and travel. Conditions tomorrow will be
less ideal but still favorable for pollen release, entrainment as well as downwind dispersal. However, that being
said we are now at the end of January which is usually the end of the Juniperus
ashei pollination period. Yet, pollen collection in the
communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio still indicate high concentrations of Juniperus pollen. Juniperus
virginiana (much less allergenic) traditionally starts pollination
near the first of February, thus we think that atmospheric pollen concentrations are beginning to be a mix of the
two species and that the Mountain Cedar pollen season is near its end. Because of the diminished Juniperus asheii pollen
in the atmosphere a favorable threat has been downgraded to moderate conditions. With good atmospheric conditions
and warm temperatures along with an increasingly dominant south wind, pollen dispersion downwind will put allergy
sufferers in north central Texas and across central to southeastern Oklahoma at risk today and
tomorrow.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Sulfur, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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