The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Moderate

San Antonio

Moderate

 

Date Issued: 29 January 2008


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 29 TX/OK: The weather today will be cold to the north but continue with mild conditions southward in Texas. In Oklahoma, the region will be cloudy to partly cloudy this morning but with clearing skies into the evening. Winds will be from the northwest and strong with sustained winds from 25 to 35 and gust as high as 50 mph. Temperatures in Oklahoma will cool back into the lower 30’s to the north but into the lower 60s to the south. Tonight, skies will remain clear with air temperatures into mid to upper 20s. Winds will calm and switch to a southerly direction north and more easterly to the south. Tomorrow skies will be mostly sunny with cooler conditions across Oklahoma. To the north temperatures will be in the mid 20s rising to the mid 50s along the Texas border to the south. Winds will be moderate to strong, 15 to 25 mph and from the south. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will return with lows warming into the lower to upper 30s. Winds will remain moderate to strong, from the south. In Texas, skies will be clear and sunny with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 60s across the Edwards Plateau and into the upper 70s in the communities along the Edwards Plateau edge. Winds will start moderate to strong from the west with strong gusts, 20 to 30 mph, building towards the afternoon becoming strong and from the northwest. Overnight skies will remain mostly clear with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s across the Edwards Plateau and in the upper 30s in the edge communities. Winds will be moderate to strong from the north to northeast along the edge communities and for many places on the Plateau. Tomorrow sunny skies will return to the region with temperatures cooling to the low to mid 60s. Moderate to strong winds will return across the Plateau especially, with winds from the south. Tomorrow night, mostly cloudy skies with return with a increased chance of precipitation building in the edge communities and the eastern portions of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be moderate to strong from the west and southwest.



Trajectory weather: Clearing skies today and cold conditions north warming towards the south will be the hallmark of the southern Great Plains today. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau southward on strong, gusty winds across southern Texas into eastern Chihuahua Mexico, then back through western Texas and towards southern Oklahoma. Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by northwestern winds that move the trajectories towards the southeast. The pathway moves southeast over northeastern Texas before turning back towards the northwest returning to the Arbuckle Mountain region. Tomorrow, winds will switch to the south. Skies will be clearing and mostly sunny with temperatures cooling. Wind characteristics are flat and heavy. Today’s atmospheric conditions suggest moderate to poor conditions for entrainment but strong winds for pollen transport. Weather conditions make for a forecast of moderate to favorable for pollen release and entrainment from the Edwards Plateau population today; however see the note on the pollination season below.



OUTLOOK: ****Moderate threat today, Favorable conditions for pollen release today, Favorable conditions for pollen entrainment and travel today*** Warm temperatures and drying conditions during the afternoons will create favorable conditions for pollen release on the Edwards Plateau today and tomorrow even though temperatures will cool and winds will relax somewhat. The current forecast would be Favorable except for the late date within the pollination season. We are now at the end of January which is usually the end of the Juniperus ashei pollination period. Yet, pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City still indicate high concentrations of Juniperus pollen. Juniperus virginiana (much less allergenic) traditionally starts pollination near the first of February, thus we think that atmospheric pollen concentrations are beginning to be to be mixes of J. virginiana and Mountain Cedar. Because of the diminished Juniperus ashei pollen in the atmosphere a favorable threat has been downgraded to moderate conditions. With good atmospheric conditions and warm temperatures along with an increasingly dominant south wind, pollen dispersion downwind will put allergy sufferers in north central Texas and across central to southeastern Oklahoma at risk today and tomorrow. This year’s forecast period will end on Friday, February 1st.



Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SAN ANGELO



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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