The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 30 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 30 TX/OK: The weather today will be mild across the region with a return to very windy conditions, especially to the north and west. In Oklahoma, the region will be partly cloudy today and tonight. Winds will be from the south and strong with sustained winds from 25 to 35 and gust as high as 40 mph. Late in the day and into tonight winds will shift from the southwest. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the 50’s today, dipping into the upper 30’s and lower 40’s tonight. Tomorrow skies will be mostly sunny with colder conditions across Oklahoma, temperatures reaching the 30s to 40 from north to south. Winds will be moderate to strong, 15 to 25 mph from the northwest with a chance of snow in the northern half of the state. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will return with lows in the 20’s. Winds will remain light to moderate from the east. In Texas, skies will be mostly cloudy with temperatures climbing into the low 60s across the Edwards Plateau and the edge communities. Winds will start moderate to strong from the south with higher gusts on the Edwards Plateau. Only moderate winds will occur around the edge of the Plateau from the south. Overnight skies will remain cloudy with low temperatures in the 40s. A 20% chance of precipitation will occur along the edge communities. Winds will remain moderate from the south. Tomorrow partly cloudy skies early clear in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region. Winds will begin moderate but build during the day switching from the southwest to the northwest late in the afternoon then switching to the east, southeast overnight. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will return with temperatures across the Edwards Plateau in the lower 30s.



Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy skies today and mild conditions will be the hallmark of the southern Great Plains today. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau northward on moderate to strong winds across northern Texas into central Oklahoma before turning towards the east heading towards Arkansas. Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by southern winds that move the trajectories north through Oklahoma before turning south again back towards the Arbuckle Mountains. Tomorrow, winds towards the north will be from the northwest switching to the east overnight. To the south, over the central Edwards Plateau and in the edge communities winds will be from the southwest switching to the northwest in the late evening. Those areas will switch to the east overnight. Skies will be partly cloudy with temperatures mild to warm. Wind characteristics initially start flat and heavy, but become more buoyant overnight and into tomorrow. Today’s atmospheric conditions suggest moderate conditions for entrainment with moderate to strong winds for pollen transport. Weather conditions make for a forecast of moderate to favorable for pollen release and entrainment from the Arbuckle Mountains population today. However, see the note on the pollination season below.



OUTLOOK: ****Moderate threat today, Favorable conditions for pollen release today, Favorable conditions for pollen entrainment and travel today*** Warm temperatures but with cloudy skies and heightened humidity will result in favorable conditions for pollen release on the Edwards Plateau today and tomorrow even though temperatures will cool slightly and winds will relax somewhat compared to yesterday The current forecast would be Favorable except for the late date within the pollination season. We are now at the end of January which is usually the end of the Juniperus ashei pollination period. Yet, pollen collections in the communities of Waco, Austin and San Antonio still indicate high concentrations of Juniperus pollen. In addition, recent high levels of Juniperus pollen were observed in Oklahoma City and Tulsa. Juniperus virginiana (much less allergenic) traditionally starts pollination near the first of February, thus we think that atmospheric pollen concentrations may be a mix of both species. Because of the diminished Juniperus ashei pollen in the atmosphere a high risk of exposure has been downgraded to moderate. With good atmospheric conditions and warm temperatures along with an increasingly dominant south wind, pollen dispersion downwind will put allergy sufferers in north central Texas and across central to southeastern Oklahoma at risk today and tomorrow. This year’s forecast period will end on Friday, February 1st.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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