The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Low |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 31 January 2008
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Thursday, January 31 TX/OK:
The weather today will be cold with snow and sleet, north across the region and with a return to very windy conditions.
In Oklahoma, the region will be partly cloudy today, then clearing tonight. Winds will be from the northwest
during the day with sustained winds from 20 to 30 mph north and from 10 to 20 towards the south gusting to 25 mph.
Late in the day and into tonight winds will shift from the west to southwest. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be
in the 30s today, dipping into the mid to lower 20s tonight. Tomorrow skies will be mostly sunny with the high
temperatures returning to the upper 40s to the mid 50’s from north to south. Winds will return to moderate conditions,
10 to 15 mph from the south. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will return with lows in the mid 30s. Winds will
remain moderate from the south. In Texas, skies will be mostly sunny to sunny with temperatures on the Edwards
Plateau initially in the mid 40s to upper 50s cooling by up to 10 degrees in the afternoon. In the edge communities,
temperatures will be in the mid 60’s. Winds will once again be strong from the northwest with gusts approaching
40 mph. Overnight skies will remain clear to mostly clear with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20’s region
wide. Tomorrow sunny to mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 60s will occur across central Texas. Winds
will be from the south and moderate, with strong gusts on the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow night, mostly clear skies
will remain with milder temperatures. Across the Edwards Plateau low temperatures will be in the mid 30s to mid
40s.
Trajectory weather: Cloudy skies today and cold conditions to the north with rain or snow and cooling temperatures
with sunny skies towards the south will be the hallmark of the southern Great Plains today. Populations in the
Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by strong northwest to west winds that move the trajectories southeast through
northeast Texas towards New Orleans and into the Gulf of Mexico. Tomorrow, southerly winds towards will dominate
the region with temperatures warming. Wind characteristics in the Arbuckles show very buoyant conditions that
are generally good for pollen entrainment and transport. However the cold temperatures and precipitation should
prevent the release of any pollen left on the trees. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau southward
on moderate to strong winds across Texas into the Gulf of Mexico. By the end of the day, winds will begin to switch
to the south turning some of the trajectories northward again.
OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today, Poor conditions for pollen release today
*** Cold temperatures and rain or snow with moderate to strong winds today result in poor conditions for pollen
release, entrainment, and travel. Conditions tomorrow will become mostly sunny with warming conditions and a return
to strong winds. This year’s forecast period will end on Friday, February 1st.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Sulfur, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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