The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 31 January 2008

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 31 TX/OK: The weather today will be cold with snow and sleet, north across the region and with a return to very windy conditions. In Oklahoma, the region will be partly cloudy today, then clearing tonight. Winds will be from the northwest during the day with sustained winds from 20 to 30 mph north and from 10 to 20 towards the south gusting to 25 mph. Late in the day and into tonight winds will shift from the west to southwest. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the 30s today, dipping into the mid to lower 20s tonight. Tomorrow skies will be mostly sunny with the high temperatures returning to the upper 40s to the mid 50’s from north to south. Winds will return to moderate conditions, 10 to 15 mph from the south. Tomorrow night mostly clear skies will return with lows in the mid 30s. Winds will remain moderate from the south. In Texas, skies will be mostly sunny to sunny with temperatures on the Edwards Plateau initially in the mid 40s to upper 50s cooling by up to 10 degrees in the afternoon. In the edge communities, temperatures will be in the mid 60’s. Winds will once again be strong from the northwest with gusts approaching 40 mph. Overnight skies will remain clear to mostly clear with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20’s region wide. Tomorrow sunny to mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 60s will occur across central Texas. Winds will be from the south and moderate, with strong gusts on the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow night, mostly clear skies will remain with milder temperatures. Across the Edwards Plateau low temperatures will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.



Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy skies today and cold conditions to the north with a chance of rain or snow and cooling temperatures with sunny skies towards the south will be the hallmark of the southern Great Plains today. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau southward on moderate to strong winds across Texas into the Gulf of Mexico. By the end of the day, winds will begin to switch to the south turning some of the trajectories northward again. Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will be influenced by strong northwest to west winds that move the trajectories southeast through northeast Texas towards New Orleans and into the Gulf of Mexico. Tomorrow, southerly winds towards will dominate the region with temperatures warming. Wind characteristics in Texas show very dense, flat conditions that are generally not good for pollen entrainment and transport. Today’s atmospheric conditions suggest poor conditions for entrainment with moderate to strong winds for pollen transport. However, weather conditions make for a forecast of poor for pollen release from the Arbuckle Mountains population.



OUTLOOK: ****Moderate threat today, Moderate conditions for pollen release today, Poor conditions for pollen entrainment and travel today*** Moderate temperatures with mostly sunny skies results in Moderate conditions for pollen release on the Edwards Plateau today and tomorrow even though temperatures will cool slightly and winds will remain strong. The current forecast would be Favorable except for the late date within the pollination season. We are now at the end of January which is usually the end of the Juniperus ashei pollination period. Yet, pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa still indicate high concentrations of Juniperus pollen. Juniperus virginiana (much less allergenic) traditionally starts pollination near the first of February, thus we think that atmospheric pollen concentrations are beginning to be to be mixes of J. virginiana and Mountain Cedar. Because of the diminished Juniperus ashei pollen in the atmosphere a favorable threat has been downgraded to moderate conditions. With good atmospheric conditions and warm temperatures along with an increasingly dominant south wind, pollen dispersion downwind will put allergy sufferers in north central Texas and across central to southeastern Oklahoma at risk today and tomorrow. This year’s forecast period will end on Friday, February 1st.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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