The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low to Moderate

Tulsa

Low to Moderate

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 1 February 2008


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Friday, February 1 TX/OK: The weather today will warm across the region after very low overnight temperatures. There will be an overall reduction of winds early but building into moderate levels in the afternoon. In Oklahoma, the region will be mostly sunny today with clear skies tonight. Winds will be from the south building to strong conditions in the afternoon. Overnight winds will remain from the south and calm to moderate to light. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s from north to south. Tonight temperatures will dip into the low 30s. Winds will switch to the northeast by morning. Tomorrow temperatures will warm by 5 degrees in the south and cool by 5 degrees to the north. Skies tomorrow will be partly cloudy with winds calming to less than 10 mph across the state. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will return with lows in the mid 30s north and lower 40s south. In Texas, sunny to mostly sunny skies will prevail and temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s will occur across central Texas. Winds will be from the south and moderate, with strong gusts on the Edwards Plateau. Tonight night, mostly clear skies will remain with milder temperatures. Across the Edwards Plateau low temperatures will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. In the edge communities, lows will be in the mid 30s. Tomorrow skies will become partly cloudy with high temperatures in the low 70s. Winds will continue to be from the south from light to moderate.



Trajectory weather: Sunny skies today and moderate temperatures in the 50s with moderate building to strong winds from the south. Air mass trajectories from populations in the Arbuckle Mountains will flow in a northerly direction on moderate to strong southerly winds. Wind characteristics in the Arbuckles show very buoyant conditions that are generally good for pollen entrainment and transport. Today’s atmospheric conditions suggest favorable conditions for entrainment with moderate to strong winds for pollen transport. However, overnight temperatures were very low limiting any pollen release to the afternoon hours. Weather conditions make for a forecast of mostly favorable for pollen release and favorable for entrainment from the Arbuckle Mountains population. However, with the pollination for J. ashei winding down the threat level across Oklahoma will be less. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau north on moderate to strong winds across northern Texas, central Oklahoma and regions further north. Sometime before tomorrow winds in Oklahoma will switch to the northeast and skies will become partly cloudy.



OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat today, Mostly favorable conditions for pollen release today in the afternoon, Favorable conditions for pollen entrainment and travel today*** Moderate to warm temperatures in the afternoon with moderate to strong winds today result in favorable conditions for pollen release, entrainment, and travel in the afternoon after very low morning temperatures. However, we are now at the beginning of February, which is usually the end of the Juniperus ashei pollination period. Yet, pollen collection in the communities of Waco, Austin, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa still indicate high concentrations of Juniperus pollen. Juniperus virginiana (much less allergenic) traditionally starts pollination near the first of February, thus we think that atmospheric pollen concentrations are beginning to be to be mixes of J. virginiana and Mountain Cedar. Because of the diminished Juniperus ashei pollen in the atmosphere a favorable threat has been downgraded to moderate conditions. With good atmospheric conditions and warm temperatures along with an increasingly dominant south wind, pollen dispersion downwind will deliver Juniperus pollen to north central Texas and across central to eastern Oklahoma and further north. This year’s forecast period will end today, Friday, February 1st.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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