The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Moderate |
Austin |
Moderate |
San Antonio |
Moderate |
Date Issued: 1 February 2008
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Friday, February 1 TX/OK: The
weather today will warm across the region after very low overnight temperatures. There will be an overall reduction
of winds early but building into moderate levels in the afternoon. In Oklahoma, the region will be mostly sunny
today with clear skies tonight. Winds will be from the south building to strong conditions in the afternoon.
Overnight winds will remain from the south and calm to moderate to light. Temperatures in Oklahoma will be in
the upper 40s to lower 50s from north to south. Tonight temperatures will dip into the low 30s. Winds will switch
to the northeast by morning. Tomorrow temperatures will warm by 5 degrees in the south and cool by 5 degrees to
the north. Skies tomorrow will be partly cloudy with winds calming to less than 10 mph across the state. Tomorrow
night partly cloudy skies will return with lows in the mid 30s north and lower 40s south. In Texas, sunny to mostly
sunny skies will prevail and temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s will occur across central Texas. Winds will
be from the south and moderate, with strong gusts on the Edwards Plateau. Tonight night, mostly clear skies will
remain with milder temperatures. Across the Edwards Plateau low temperatures will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
In the edge communities, lows will be in the mid 30s. Tomorrow skies will become partly cloudy with high temperatures
in the low 70s. Winds will continue to be from the south from light to moderate.
Trajectory weather: Sunny skies today and moderate temperatures in the 50s after low overnight temperatures with
moderate to strong winds from the south. The air mass trajectories move from the Edwards Plateau north on moderate
to strong winds across northern Texas, central Oklahoma and regions further north. Sometime before tomorrow winds
in Oklahoma will switch to the northeast and skies will become partly cloudy. Populations in the Arbuckle Mountains
will also flow in a northerly direction on moderate to strong southerly winds. Tomorrow, temperatures will warm
but winds in Oklahoma will decrease to light conditions. Wind characteristics in the eastern part of the Edwards
Plateau show very buoyant conditions that are generally good for pollen entrainment and transport however, trajectories
from the western part of the Plateau are mixed. Today’s atmospheric conditions suggest mostly favorable conditions
for entrainment with moderate to strong winds for pollen transport.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate threat today, Favorable conditions for pollen release today, mostly favorable conditions
for pollen entrainment and travel today*** Moderate to warm temperatures with moderate to strong winds today result
in favorable conditions for pollen release, entrainment, and travel in the afternoon after low morning temperatures.
Conditions tomorrow will become partly cloudy with warming conditions and a return to strong winds. We are now
at the end of January which is usually the end of the Juniperus ashei pollination period. Yet, pollen collection
in the communities of Waco, Austin, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa still indicate high concentrations of
Juniperus pollen. Juniperus virginiana (much less allergenic) traditionally starts pollination near the first
of February, thus we think that atmospheric pollen concentrations are beginning to be to be mixes of J. virginiana
and Mountain Cedar. Because of the diminished Juniperus ashei pollen in the atmosphere a favorable threat has been
downgraded to moderate conditions. With good atmospheric conditions and warm temperatures along with an increasingly
dominant south wind, pollen dispersion downwind will deliver Juniperus pollen to north central Texas and across
central to eastern Oklahoma and further north. This year’s forecast period will end today, Friday, February 1st.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SAN ANGELO
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The University
of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department
of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno
CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions
over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
Return to Forecasting Home Page