The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 2 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, January 2 - TX/OK: Across the region conditions will remain warm today and tomorrow. Morning fog is clearing across the region and skies are clearing. Temperatures today in Oklahoma will be in the upper 50s and into the 60s. Skies will become partly cloudy over the day as higher humidity moves in to the south. Winds will be light and variable increasing to moderate conditions from a southerly direction late in the afternoon and overnight. Overnight temperatures will be very mild with the low temperatures only dipping into the upper 40s and low 50s. On Saturday, partly cloudy skies will remain with high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s from north to south. Winds will be moderate to strong, 10 to 20 mph, from the southwest. Colder conditions will return on Saturday night with low temperatures back in the mid to lower 30s and winds turning from the north as colder air drops southward. In Texas, the Edwards Plateau will be mostly sunny towards the west with partly cloudy conditions along the eastern and southern areas. The areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau were cloudy this morning, but will clear to mostly sunny conditions for the rest of the day. Temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Winds will be moderate from the south today and tonight. Overnight and tomorrow morning increasing humidity will raise the possibility of thundershowers up to 40%, especially in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau, as warm moist air moves in from the south and southwest. Tomorrow wind strength will increase from the south and southwest to strong during the day. Late Saturday night and early Sunday morning winds will shift from the southwest to the northwest as another cold front moves into the region.

Trajectory weather: Dense morning fog burning off to partly cloudy skies today, with warm conditions will occur in southern Oklahoma. Winds will be light and variable today and tonight increasing from a southwesterly direction tomorrow then switching from the north overnight on Saturday. The trajectories show that the winds will move directly north today and tomorrow morning and then turn directly south as cold air moves into the region. Atmospheric conditions today suggest that the air will be relatively stable and move at or near the ground. Tomorrow strong winds will occur as the cold front to the north approaches. Conditions in the Arbuckle Mountains should be conducive for the release of pollen today and tomorrow. Light and variable winds today indicate that the pollen may not move great distances nor be well entrained within the atmosphere. Tomorrow conditions should be much better for long distance travel.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** favorable conditions for pollen release today with very favorable conditions tomorrow, moderate to poor conditions for entrainment and transport today and tomorrow. Warm but humid conditions will present mostly favorable conditions for pollen release today and better conditions tomorrow. Light and variable winds today and tonight will occur with the relatively stable conditions across the region. Stable air masses across the region suggest that any pollen released today should remain close to the trees and not be entrained into greater atmospheric heights. Winds from the south will carry any pollen initially northward over central Oklahoma. Tomorrow provides good conditions for pollen dispersal and much better conditions for entrainment and long-distance travel as moderate to strong winds increase as a cold front moves southward Saturday night and into Sunday. Heavy pollen concentrations have been observed during past years for the first couple of weeks in January. The increasing amount of pollen being recorded suggests that we may expect similar conditions this year.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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