The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 2 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, January 2 - TX/OK: Across the region conditions will remain warm today and tomorrow. Morning fog is clearing across the region and skies are clearing. Temperatures today in Oklahoma will be in the upper 50s and into the 60s. Skies will become partly cloudy over the day as higher humidity moves in to the south. Winds will be light and variable increasing to moderate conditions from a southerly direction late in the afternoon and overnight. Overnight temperatures will be very mild with the low temperatures only dipping into the upper 40s and low 50s. On Saturday, partly cloudy skies will remain with high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s from north to south. Winds will be moderate to strong, 10 to 20 mph, from the southwest. Colder conditions will return on Saturday night with low temperatures back in the mid to lower 30s and winds turning from the north as colder air drops southward. In Texas, the Edwards Plateau will be mostly sunny towards the west with partly cloudy conditions along the eastern and southern areas. The areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau were cloudy this morning, but will clear to mostly sunny conditions for the rest of the day. Temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Winds will be moderate from the south today and tonight. Overnight and tomorrow morning increasing humidity will raise the possibility of thundershowers up to 40%, especially in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau, as warm moist air moves in from the south and southwest. Tomorrow wind strength will increase from the south and southwest to strong during the day. Late Saturday night and early Sunday morning winds will shift from the southwest to the northwest as another cold front moves into the region.

Trajectory weather: Mostly sunny skies with warm conditions will occur across the region. Winds will be light to moderate from the southwest and south today as moist air moves in from the south. Overnight there will be increasing clouds and increasing humidity with a 40% chance of thunderstorms in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau relatively dryer conditions will occur with partly cloudy skies overnight low temperatures will be very mild and in the lower 50s on the Plateau and in the lower 60s in the surrounding communities. Saturday morning will eventually be partly sunny, but a 20% chance of precipitation will occur. Saturday temperatures will reach the upper 70s and into the 80s across the area. Air mass trajectories show movement to the north, northeast. The overall pattern of wind movement will move any entrained pollen north and northeastward across northern Texas, into central to eastern Oklahoma and on to northwestern Arkansas and Missouri. Conditions on the Edwards Plateau should be conducive for the release of pollen today and tomorrow with a potential reduction because of high humidity levels. Winds today will continue to build this afternoon and then tomorrow bringing a better chance of pollen dispersal long-distances tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today and tomorrow *** favorable conditions for pollen release. Warm conditions will present very favorable conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. However, increasing humidity and a chance of rain in the surrounding communities tonight and tomorrow may retard some of the pollen dispersal. Winds will be moderate from the south and southwest today and then increase substantially tomorrow. Atmospheric conditions show stable conditions across the region suggesting that entrainment and long-distance travel may be relatively restricted today but more buoyant conditions are on tap for tomorrow. Any precipitation that occurs on Saturday will cleanse the air and bring concentrations down. As the new year begins we are entering the main portion of the pollination season. Heavy pollen concentrations have been observed during past years for the first couple of weeks in January. The increasing amount of pollen being recorded suggests that we may expect similar conditions this year.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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