The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
SATURDAY / SUNDAY
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Moderate to High / Low |
Tulsa |
High / Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low / Low |
Date Issued: 3 January 2009
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Sat and Sun, January 3 and 4 - TX/OK:
Across the region warm conditions will remain today but with significant changes tomorrow. Morning fog and partly
cloudy conditions today in southern Oklahoma will occur with temperatures in the upper 70's and moderate winds
from the south. Tonight skies will remain partly cloudy and colder than recent evenings with the low temperatures
in the mid 30s. Winds will shift overnight to northerly, as a cold front moves southward. Sunday will be mostly
sunny with high temperatures only in the mid-40s with winds continuing to be moderate from the north. Skies will
become partly cloudy overnight on Sunday with lows in the mid-20s and winds from the northeast at around 10 mph.
In Texas, the Edwards Plateau and surrounding communities will be mostly sunny. Temperatures will continue to be
very warm with most areas in the lower 80s. Today winds will start from the south and be moderate to strong with
gusts in some areas above 25 mph. Late in the day winds will switch to the southwest in the afternoon on the Edwards
Plateau and later in the evening in the surrounding communities. Tonight skies will be mostly clear with temperatures
in the upper 30s and lower 40s on the Plateau and lower 50s in the surrounding communities. On Sunday, the region
will have partly cloudy conditions on the Plateau with sunny skies in the surrounding communities. Winds will
be moderate and from the north with cooler conditions. Temperatures will be in the low 60s in the surrounding
communities lowering towards the northwest on the Edwards Plateau. Sunday night clouds will thicken with an increasing
potential for rain, showers and thunderstorms. The surrounding communities will have a 30 to 40% chance of precipitation
on Sunday night.
Trajectory weather: Sunny to partly cloudy skies today with warm temperatures will occur in the Arbuckle
Mountains. Winds will be moderate to strong and from the south, southwest during the day, then turning to northerly
tonight as a cold front comes through the region. The air mass trajectories for today show that the winds will
move north, northeast ahead of the cold front. By tomorrow winds will be from the north and trajectories show
that the air mass will move directly southward. Tomorrow will see much colder conditions with temperatures only
in the mid 40s. Sunday night conditions will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid 20s and winds moderate
to light around 10 mph. Conditions in the tree population in the Arbuckle Mountains will be good for pollen release
today but less so tomorrow because of cold conditions. Moderate to strong winds today indicates pollen released
today may be entrained and move long distances within the atmosphere. Tomorrow conditions will be less conducive
for entrainment and travel because of cold atmospheric conditions.
OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today, moderate to low threat tomorrow *** favorable conditions for pollen release today with unfavorable
conditions tomorrow, good conditions for entrainment and transport today, moderate to poor conditions for entrainment
and transport tomorrow. Warm conditions and strong winds today will present favorable conditions for pollen
release, entrainment and travel. Relatively stable atmospheric conditions across the region will occur initially
with buoyant atmospheric conditions increasing as the cold front approaches. Stable air masses across the region
suggest that any pollen released today should remain close to the trees and travel at ground level which may reduce
some of the pollen concentrations. Winds from the south will carry pollen initially north to northeast over the
Tulsa region. Tomorrow provides poorer conditions for pollen dispersal and any pollen entrained within the atmosphere
will move directly southward. Heavy pollen concentrations have been observed during past years for the first couple
of weeks in January. The increasing amount of pollen being recorded suggests that the trees are into main portion
of their release this year.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Sulfur, OK.
SATURDAY
SUNDAY
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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