The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

SATURDAY / SUNDAY

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Moderate to High / Low

Tulsa

High / Low

St. Louis MO

Low / Low

 

Date Issued: 3 January 2009


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Sat and Sun, January 3 and 4 - TX/OK: Across the region warm conditions will remain today but with significant changes tomorrow. Morning fog and partly cloudy conditions today in southern Oklahoma will occur with temperatures in the upper 70's and moderate winds from the south. Tonight skies will remain partly cloudy and colder than recent evenings with the low temperatures in the mid 30s. Winds will shift overnight to northerly, as a cold front moves southward. Sunday will be mostly sunny with high temperatures only in the mid-40s with winds continuing to be moderate from the north. Skies will become partly cloudy overnight on Sunday with lows in the mid-20s and winds from the northeast at around 10 mph. In Texas, the Edwards Plateau and surrounding communities will be mostly sunny. Temperatures will continue to be very warm with most areas in the lower 80s. Today winds will start from the south and be moderate to strong with gusts in some areas above 25 mph. Late in the day winds will switch to the southwest in the afternoon on the Edwards Plateau and later in the evening in the surrounding communities. Tonight skies will be mostly clear with temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s on the Plateau and lower 50s in the surrounding communities. On Sunday, the region will have partly cloudy conditions on the Plateau with sunny skies in the surrounding communities. Winds will be moderate and from the north with cooler conditions. Temperatures will be in the low 60s in the surrounding communities lowering towards the northwest on the Edwards Plateau. Sunday night clouds will thicken with an increasing potential for rain, showers and thunderstorms. The surrounding communities will have a 30 to 40% chance of precipitation on Sunday night.



Trajectory weather: Sunny to partly cloudy skies today with warm temperatures will occur in the Arbuckle Mountains. Winds will be moderate to strong and from the south, southwest during the day, then turning to northerly tonight as a cold front comes through the region. The air mass trajectories for today show that the winds will move north, northeast ahead of the cold front. By tomorrow winds will be from the north and trajectories show that the air mass will move directly southward. Tomorrow will see much colder conditions with temperatures only in the mid 40s. Sunday night conditions will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid 20s and winds moderate to light around 10 mph. Conditions in the tree population in the Arbuckle Mountains will be good for pollen release today but less so tomorrow because of cold conditions. Moderate to strong winds today indicates pollen released today may be entrained and move long distances within the atmosphere. Tomorrow conditions will be less conducive for entrainment and travel because of cold atmospheric conditions.



OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today, moderate to low threat tomorrow *** favorable conditions for pollen release today with unfavorable conditions tomorrow, good conditions for entrainment and transport today, moderate to poor conditions for entrainment and transport tomorrow. Warm conditions and strong winds today will present favorable conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel. Relatively stable atmospheric conditions across the region will occur initially with buoyant atmospheric conditions increasing as the cold front approaches. Stable air masses across the region suggest that any pollen released today should remain close to the trees and travel at ground level which may reduce some of the pollen concentrations. Winds from the south will carry pollen initially north to northeast over the Tulsa region. Tomorrow provides poorer conditions for pollen dispersal and any pollen entrained within the atmosphere will move directly southward. Heavy pollen concentrations have been observed during past years for the first couple of weeks in January. The increasing amount of pollen being recorded suggests that the trees are into main portion of their release this year.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.


SATURDAY


SUNDAY



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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