The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

SATURDAY / SUNDAY

 

Date Issued: 3 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Sat and Sun, January 3 and 4 - TX/OK: Across the region warm conditions will remain today but with significant changes tomorrow. Morning fog and partly cloudy conditions today in southern Oklahoma will occur with temperatures in the upper 70's and moderate winds from the south. Tonight skies will remain partly cloudy and colder than recent evenings with the low temperatures in the mid 30s. Winds will shift overnight to northerly, as a cold front moves southward. Sunday will be mostly sunny with high temperatures only in the mid-40s with winds continuing to be moderate from the north. Skies will become partly cloudy overnight on Sunday with lows in the mid-20s and winds from the northeast at around 10 mph. In Texas, the Edwards Plateau and surrounding communities will be mostly sunny. Temperatures will continue to be very warm with most areas in the lower 80s. Today winds will start from the south and be moderate to strong with gusts in some areas above 25 mph. Late in the day winds will switch to the southwest in the afternoon on the Edwards Plateau and later in the evening in the surrounding communities. Tonight skies will be mostly clear with temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s on the Plateau and lower 50s in the surrounding communities. On Sunday, the region will have partly cloudy conditions on the Plateau with sunny skies in the surrounding communities. Winds will be moderate and from the north with cooler conditions. Temperatures will be in the low 60s in the surrounding communities lowering towards the northwest on the Edwards Plateau. Sunday night clouds will thicken with an increasing potential for rain, showers and thunderstorms. The surrounding communities will have a 30 to 40% chance of precipitation on Sunday night.

Trajectory weather: Sunny to partly cloudy skies today and very warm temperatures throughout Texas. Winds will be moderate this morning gaining in strength this afternoon on the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the south and then shifting to southwesterly winds. Air trajectories will move directly north and then shift towards the northeast over southeastern Oklahoma and into Arkansas. The warm temperatures and strong winds make it likely that significant amounts of pollen will be released and entrained within the atmosphere today and tomorrow. Cooler conditions will occur tomorrow as cold front moves into the state. Trajectories on Sunday will move southward into southern Texas supported by winds from the north. Temperatures will cool significantly from today, with readings in the 50s and 60s region wide. In the surrounding communities increasing clouds will appear on Sunday evening with an increasing chance of precipitation and thunderstorms. Austin and San Antonio have a 30% to40% chance of rain on Sunday night.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat *** favorable conditions for pollen release today with mostly favorable conditions tomorrow, good conditions for entrainment and transport today but less favorable tomorrow. Warm conditions and strong winds today will present favorable conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel. Winds today will be towards the north to northeast, but will turn towards the south overnight. Relatively stable atmospheric conditions across the region will occur initially with buoyant atmospheric conditions increasing as the cold front approaches. Stable air masses across the region suggest that any pollen released today should remain close to the trees and travel at ground level, which may reduce some of the pollen concentrations. Winds from the south will carry pollen initially north to northeast over northeastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma and then over most of Arkansas. Tomorrow provides poorer conditions for pollen dispersal and any pollen entrained within the atmosphere will move directly southward. Heavy pollen concentrations have been observed during past years for the first couple of weeks in January. The increasing amount of pollen being recorded suggests that the trees are into the primary portion of their release this year.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

SATURDAY

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

SUNDAY

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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