The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 5 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, January 5 - TX/OK: Across the region cold air moved in yesterday and last night resulting in surface temperatures near or below freezing. Precipitation across the region will result in freezing rain across the areas in which Juniperus ashei grows, with rain in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be light to moderate from the north early this morning and they will pick-up and shift from the north to the south-southwest. Conditions will remain cloudy with the chance of precipitation staying high. On Tuesday, temperatures will return to the 50s and 60s but with the chance of precipitation remaining then diminishing during the day. Skies will clear Tuesday afternoon for mostly clear condition Tuesday night. Temperatures on Tuesday night will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s in Oklahoma and on the Edwards Plateau. In the surrounding communities temperatures will be near 40. Winds on Tuesday will remain from the southwest and west increasing to strong and gusty conditions in the afternoon, then returning to more moderate conditions Tuesday night.

Trajectory weather: Cloudy skies today, with cold conditions and a chance of freezing rain will occur in southern Oklahoma. Winds will be light and variable from the south during the day, then turning to northwest tomorrow morning and increasing to moderate to strong winds with gusts near 30 mph. The trajectories show that the winds will move due north today. Tomorrow, warmer conditions will occur across the area with the skies clearing towards the late afternoon and evening. Tuesday evening winds will once again shift to a direction out of the northwest bringing cooler conditions. Conditions in the tree population in the Arbuckle Mountains will be poor for pollen release today and tomorrow because of cold conditions and precipitation. Moderate to strong winds tomorrow but moist conditions from precipitation will hinder pollen release. Cold atmospheric conditions with a dense heavy atmosphere indicate poor condition for pollen entrainment and travel.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today along with poor conditions for entrainment and transport today. Cold conditions with light and variable winds and the chance of freezing rain today will present unfavorable conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel. Winds today will be from the south, but will turn towards tomorrow morning and gain strength.. Stable air masses across the region will further restrict any pollen from disseminating any distance from the source. Remnants of today's moisture across the region should result in poor conditions for pollen release and dispersal tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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