The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Low

San Antonio

Low

 

Date Issued: 5 January 2009


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Monday, January 5 - TX/OK: Across the region cold air moved in yesterday and last night resulting in surface temperatures near or below freezing. Precipitation across the region will result in freezing rain across the areas in which Juniperus ashei grows, with rain in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be light to moderate from the north early this morning and they will pick-up and shift from the north to the south-southwest. Conditions will remain cloudy with the chance of precipitation staying high. On Tuesday, temperatures will return to the 50s and 60s but with the chance of precipitation remaining then diminishing during the day. Skies will clear Tuesday afternoon for mostly clear condition Tuesday night. Temperatures on Tuesday night will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s in Oklahoma and on the Edwards Plateau. In the surrounding communities temperatures will be near 40. Winds on Tuesday will remain from the southwest and west increasing to strong and gusty conditions in the afternoon, then returning to more moderate conditions Tuesday night.


Trajectory weather: Cloudy skies today, with cold conditions and a chance of freezing rain will occur on the Edwards Plateau with precipitation in the surrounding communities. Winds will be light to moderate from the north during the day, then turning overnight into tomorrow morning and increasing to moderate to strong winds with gusts near 30 mph on Tuesday. The trajectories show that the winds will move due south today. By tomorrow winds will move the trajectories to a more easterly direction. Tomorrow, warmer conditions will occur across the area with the skies clearing and towards the late afternoon and evening. Tuesday evening winds will once again shift to a direction out of the west bringing cooler conditions. Temperatures will be in the low 40s into the 30's across the Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Conditions in the tree population in the primary Edwards Plateau population will be poor for pollen release today and tomorrow because of cold conditions and precipitation. Moderate to strong winds tomorrow but moist conditions from precipitation will continue to hinder pollen release. Cold atmospheric conditions with a dense heavy atmosphere indicate poor condition for pollen entrainment and travel both days.



OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today along with poor conditions for entrainment and transport today. Cold conditions with moderate winds and the chance of freezing rain today will present unfavorable conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel. Winds today will be towards the south, but will turn tomorrow morning and gain strength.. Stable air masses across the region will further restrict any pollen from disseminating any distance from the source. Tomorrow, winds from the southwest will move the atmosphere to the northeast. However, remnant moisture and precipitation across the region should result in poor conditions for pollen release and dispersal tomorrow.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SAN ANGELO



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, Fresno CA 93740). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page