The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 6 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 6 - TX/OK: Across the region wet conditions will be ending today with clearing conditions and sunny skies on tap for this afternoon and tomorrow. Temperatures will be cool and mild in the north with temperatures in the 40s and 50s and across Texas in the 60s. Chance of precipitation will occur in the south this morning with clearing skies in the afternoon. There is 100% chance of rain early today in both Austin and San Antonio. Winds will begin from the south this morning switching to a dominant westerly direction. To the north winds will be light to moderate declining to light and variable over night. In Texas, winds will start at light to moderate but build to strong and gusty conditions this afternoon. Tonight winds will decline as temperatures dip into the lower 30s and upper 20s across the region. Skies will be clearing overnight. Tomorrow, sunny skies will begin the drying process across the region as temperatures rise 5 to 10 degrees from today's readings. Winds will be primarily from the southwest towards the west and light in the north grading toward moderate to strong in the south. Wednesday night temperatures will be in the lower 30s across the region with mostly clear skies and light winds out of the west.

Trajectory weather: Cloudy skies today, with mild conditions will occur in southern Oklahoma. Winds will be light to moderate from the south switching during the day towards a more westerly then northwesterly direction this afternoon and evening. Winds will become light and variable overnight. The trajectories show that the air mass will move slowly toward the southeast today and tonight, across eastern Texas and southeastern Louisiana before moving over the Gulf of Mexico. Tomorrow, temperatures will rise by 5 to 10 degrees with clearing skies. Conditions in the tree population in the Arbuckle Mountains will be poor to moderate for pollen release today and tomorrow because of moist conditions. Moderate winds today and buoyant atmospheric conditions and tomorrow will result in moderate conditions for travel of any pollen entrained into the atmosphere.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today along with moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today. Cool and moist conditions with light to moderate winds and residual moisture from earlier precipitation will present unfavorable conditions for pollen release, and moderate conditions for entrainment and travel. Winds today will be towards the south. Stable air masses across the region will further restrict any pollen from disseminating any distance from the source. Tomorrow, winds from the southwest will move the atmosphere to the northeast. Sunny skies and drying conditions will increase the chance of pollen dispersal and movement tomorrow

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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