The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 6 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 6 - TX/OK: Across the region wet conditions will be ending today with clearing conditions and sunny skies on tap for this afternoon and tomorrow. Temperatures will be cool and mild in the north with temperatures in the 40s and 50s and across Texas in the 60s. Chance of precipitation will occur in the south this morning with clearing skies in the afternoon. There is 100% chance of rain early today in both Austin and San Antonio. Winds will begin from the south this morning switching to a dominant westerly direction. To the north winds will be light to moderate declining to light and variable over night. In Texas, winds will start at light to moderate but build to strong and gusty conditions this afternoon. Tonight winds will decline as temperatures dip into the lower 30s and upper 20s across the region. Skies will be clearing overnight. Tomorrow, sunny skies will begin the drying process across the region as temperatures rise 5 to 10 degrees from today's readings. Winds will be primarily from the southwest towards the west and light in the north grading toward moderate to strong in the south. Wednesday night temperatures will be in the lower 30s across the region with mostly clear skies and light winds out of the west.

Trajectory weather: Cloudy skies today, with rain this morning in communities surrounding the east side of the Edwards Plateau. Areas of the Plateau also have a chance of showers this morning. Conditions will improve towards the afternoon with skies becoming partly cloudy to sunny. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s to low 60s across the region. Winds will begin from the west to southwest and light, then build towards moderate levels during the afternoon. The trajectories all move towards the east today with a dominant westerly wind pattern. The atmosphere at the surface will remain relatively cool and dense thus very little buoyancy in the atmosphere will occur. Tonight low temperatures will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s with skies clearing to mostly clear. Wednesday will see sunny skies and drying conditions across the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain from the west switching from the southwest towards Wednesday evening. Winds will continue to be strong at times. Temperatures will increase by 5 to 10 degrees and the atmosphere will begin to dry out. Conditions in the tree population in the Texas Juniperus ashei populations will be poor to moderate for pollen release on the east side of the Plateau and good on the west and gaining tomorrow because today's moist conditions will be drying. Dense cool air today will keep the atmosphere at low elevations but will become buoyant tomorrow. Conditions for entrainment and long-distance travel will be relatively poor today but increase tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** moderate conditions for pollen release today along with unfavorable conditions for entrainment and transport today. Cool and moist conditions but with moderate to strong winds from the west will result in a moderate threat today. The forecast is for a moderate threat as the trees appear to be in the primary portion of their seasonal pollen dispersal. Early morning precipitation will hinder and pollen dispersal but as conditions clear this afternoon the potential for afternoon dispersal exists. The atmosphere, however, shows unfavorable conditions for entrainment and travel as the winds will travel at low elevations today. Sunny skies tomorrow and drying conditions will bring the threat throughout the region to higher levels.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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