The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Moderate

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 7 January 2009


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Wednesday, Jan 7. TX/OK: Another warm up will occur across the region through Friday. High temperatures today in Oklahoma will range from the mid 50s in the north to the low 60s near the Texas border with partly cloudy to sunny skies and moderate winds from the west or southwest. Tonight, lows will be in the 30s. Thursday will be clear with temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s and light variable winds. In Texas, daytime highs today will be in the low 60s in the north to the low 70s across the Edwards Plateau and in the south. Skies will be clear today in Texas with light to moderate west, southwest winds. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s to the low 40s. On Thursday temperatures in Texas will be in the 70s with clear skies and light southwest winds.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories initially move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the northeast and then turn east, southeast over Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind. Sunny skies and moderate southwest winds will prevail across the region, but low temperatures this morning in the Arbuckle Mountains will delay pollen dispersal to the afternoon hours. Temperatures overnight will again be cold although averaging 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this morning.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat today ***favorable conditions for pollen release. Sunny dry conditions will occur today, but temperatures at the source area are low this morning delaying pollen release to the afternoon hours. Warm temperatures will continue for the next two days so that favorable conditions for pollen release will also continue. Conditions for downwind dispersal also seem to be favorable with populations in Arkansas and northern Louisiana especially at risk today and early tomorrow.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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