The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 7 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, Jan 7. TX/OK: Another warm up will occur across the region through Friday. High temperatures today in Oklahoma will range from the mid 50s in the north to the low 60s near the Texas border with partly cloudy to sunny skies and moderate winds from the west or southwest. Tonight, lows will be in the 30s. Thursday will be clear with temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s and light variable winds. In Texas, daytime highs today will be in the low 60s in the north to the low 70s across the Edwards Plateau and in the south. Skies will be clear today in Texas with light to moderate west, southwest winds. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s to the low 40s. On Thursday temperatures in Texas will be in the 70s with clear skies and light southwest winds.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau generally move to the east towards Louisiana; however at lower elevations there is some movement to the north tonight and tomorrow. Conditions for downwind dispersal are mixed today. Early morning temperatures across the Edwards Plateau were cold this morning possibly delaying morning pollen release. However, conditions across the Plateau will be quite warm this afternoon with sunny clear skies and moderate west winds. Early January is usually the peak of the pollen release period; therefore, significant amounts of pollen may be released. Overnight lows will be cool again but tomorrow temperatures will be in the 70s across the area so continued pollen release is likely.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today *** Favorable conditions for pollen release this afternoon with sunny skies and moderate winds. Conditions for downwind dispersal are mixed with winds showing little lift. As a result much pollen may remain in the source area. Since early January is often the peak release period, significant amounts of pollen release might be expected with populations in Texas and Louisiana at high risk. Favorable conditions will continue tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page