The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 9 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, Jan 9. TX/OK: Warm and windy conditions will occur across the region today ahead of a cold front that is moving through Colorado this morning. The front is forecast to reach northwest Oklahoma early this afternoon and central Oklahoma later this afternoon. South of the front the air will become very warm with gusty southwest winds. As the cold front approaches, winds will diminish before shifting to the northwest. The northwest winds will be strong and gusty as the front pushes farther east and south into Oklahoma and Texas. This morning skies range from partly to mostly cloudy to overcast representing a return of moist Gulf air ahead of the cold front. Areas of fog and drizzle were reported overnight in Austin and San Antonio and may continue in scattered areas this morning and early afternoon. Clouds will gradually dissipate during the afternoon. Temperatures today will be about 20 degrees above normal with 60s in Oklahoma and 70s in Texas. Temperatures tomorrow will be much colder in the upper 30s and 40s in Oklahoma and 50s in Texas. Winds tomorrow will be fairly strong throughout the region with the possibility of wind advisories being issued in some areas.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the ArbuckleMountains to the north and then turn east over central and eastern Oklahoma on strong southerly winds. The trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies prevail at the source site this morning with humidity running high due to the gulf moisture in the area. Skies will clear this afternoon and winds will shift to the northwest as the cold front pushes through the area. Lows tonight will be in the low 30s with colder conditions tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today *** mostly favorable conditions for pollen release. Warm temperatures and strong winds are conducive to pollen release and dispersal, but high humidity this morning may limit the amount of pollen released.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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