The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 9 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, Jan 9. TX/OK: Warm and windy conditions will occur across the region today ahead of a cold front that is moving through Colorado this morning. The front is forecast to reach northwest Oklahoma early this afternoon and central Oklahoma later this afternoon. South of the front the air will become very warm with gusty southwest winds. As the cold front approaches, winds will diminish before shifting to the northwest. The northwest winds will be strong and gusty as the front pushes farther east and south into Oklahoma and Texas. This morning skies range from partly to mostly cloudy to overcast representing a return of moist Gulf air ahead of the cold front. Areas of fog and drizzle were reported overnight in Austin and San Antonio and may continue in scattered areas this morning and early afternoon. Clouds will gradually dissipate during the afternoon. Temperatures today will be about 20 degrees above normal with 60s in Oklahoma and 70s in Texas. Temperatures tomorrow will be much colder in the upper 30s and 40s in Oklahoma and 50s in Texas. Winds tomorrow will be fairly strong throughout the region with the possibility of wind advisories being issued in some areas.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move to the northeast this afternoon under the influence of strong south to southwest winds. As the cold front moves into the area with cold sinking air and strong northwest winds the low level trajectories curve to the southeast. The upper level trajectories continue moving to the northeast. Conditions at the source population along the Edwards Plateau are warm today with above average temperatures and strong southwest winds. Overnight drizzle and warm moist Gulf air raised humidity levels in the eastern side of the Plateau which may reduce pollen dispersal. The strong cold front will pass through the region tonight and bring strong northwest winds to the area and much cooler temperatures tomorrow.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat today *** Most areas have favorable conditions for pollen release and transport with warm temperatures and strong winds. However, high humidity levels in some areas along the eastern side of the Plateau may reduce pollen levels. Since the trees are in their peak release period significant amounts of pollen might be expected. The trajectory characteristics do not show perfect atmospheric conditions leading to entrainment and travel downwind. However, since the trees are in the peak pollen release period, high pollen levels can be expected.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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