The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

SATURDAY / SUNDAY

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low / Low

Tulsa

Low / Low to Moderate

St. Louis MO

Low / Low

 

Date Issued: 10 January 2009


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Saturday and Sunday, Jan 10 and 11. TX/OK: A strong cold front moved through the region late on Friday and early this morning bringing much colder temperatures to the Texas-Oklahoma region. Temperatures will recover some this afternoon although highs will still be 20 to 30 degrees colder than Friday. The cold front brings very dry air to the region with strong northerly winds during the day today. The very dry air mass and mostly clear skies and light night time winds will facilitate radiation cooling and large diurnal temperature ranges. Overnight lows will range from the low 20s to the low 30s tonight. Temperatures will moderate on Sunday with temperatures in the 50s in Oklahoma and 60s in Texas. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy with light to moderate variable winds. Low humidity will continue tomorrow and cold overnight times will be in place again on Sunday night.



Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the ArbuckleMountains to the south over eastern Texas on strong northerly winds. The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind as cold air drains into thearea. Cold sinking atmospheric conditions results in the air-masses moving along the ground where any entrained particles are quickly filtered. Sunny skies will prevail across the region but low temperatures and strong gusty winds will occur at the source site today. Below freezing conditions expected again tonight with warmer temperatures and sunny skies tomorrow. Sunday's trajectories move to the east and then curve back to the northeast and then east again under variable winds. Trajectory characteristics on Sunday are better for entrainment and travel.



OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today, Moderate Threat on Sunday ***unfavorable conditions for pollen release today, better conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and travel today, better tomorrow. Sunny dry conditions will occur today, but temperatures just getting into the low 40s will reduce the chance of any significant pollen release making for unfavorable conditions. Cold temperatures are expected tonight with warming tomorrow. Temperatures tomorrow will reach the favorable range although the low morning temperatures will limit pollen release to the afternoon hours. Poor atmospheric conditions exist for pollen entrainment and travel today with cold heavy air moving across the region at ground level. Conditions for transport are better tomorrow.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

SATURDAY


SUNDAY



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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