The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 12 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, Jan 12. TX/OK: A series of cold fronts will move through the Texas-Oklahoma region over the next few days causing temperatures to see-saw especially in Oklahoma. The first front will move into Oklahoma and west Texas this afternoon with gusty northwest winds developing. The cold front will continue pushing south and east through central Texas overnight. The second front will drop south across the plains states Wednesday into Thursday bringing another blast of cold air. Temperatures today will reach the 50s in Oklahoma and the 60s in Texas ahead of the front. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy with moderate to strong southwest to westerly winds shifting to northwest as the front passes. This is a dry front with low humidity continuing in the region. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 20s in Oklahoma and upper 20s and low 30s in Texas with north to northwest winds and clear skies. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s in Oklahoma. Highs tomorrow in Texas will be 8 to 10 degrees cooler than today with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s. Winds will be from the north during the morning tomorrow and gradually swinging back around to the south in the afternoon.


Trajectory weather: This afternoon the air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the east over Arkansas. The trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind. At the source area we will have sunny to partly cloudy skies with temperatures warming to the 50s early this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Temperatures will be in the favorable range for pollen release this afternoon. Winds will shift to the northwest and overnight temperatures will be in the 20s. Tomorrow temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s at the source area.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat today *** favorable conditions for pollen release. Mostly sunny dry conditions will occur today with temperatures getting into the mid to upper 50s providing favorable temperatures for pollen release. Conditions are favorable for downwind dispersal with pollen mainly moving to the east over Arkansas. Cold temperatures tonight and lower temperatures are expected tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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